Barbara Pearce: Christopher Martin's 5K Times

                   Predicted
                    Minimum
Age  Year    Time     Time  Difference

40   1994   20:52    18:19    2:33
41   1995   20:15    18:28    1:47
42   1996   20:11    18:38    1:33
43   1997   21:29    18:47    2:42
44   1998   20:34    18:57    1:37
45   1999   22:05    19:07    2:58
46   2000   21:36    19:17    2:19
47   2001   21:03    19:27    1:36
48   2002   20:58    19:36    1:22
49   2003   21:42    19:47    1:55
50   2004   21:09    19:57    1:12
51   2005   22:04    20:07    1:57
52   2006   21:15    20:18    0:57
53   2007   21:34    20:28    1:06
54   2008   22:13    20:39    1:34
55   2009   21:31    20:49    0:42
56   2010   22:40    21:00    1:40
57   2011   22:17    21:11    1:06
58   2012   21:38    21:22    0:16
59   2013   22:34    21:33    1:01
60   2014   22:33    21:44    0:49
61   2015   22:24    21:55    0:29
62   2016   22:28    22:07    0:21
63   2017   23:48    22:18    1:30
64   2018   22:30    22:30    0:00
65   2019   23:35    22:44    0:51
66   2020   24:00    22:60    1:00
67   2021   23:37    23:18    0:19
68   2022   25:45    23:38    2:07
69   2023   24:15    24:00    0:15

The predicted minimum times were computed using the link on the page Compute Aging Effects for "Running, 5K, women." The age factors are based on the results in Fair (2024), "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women".

These calculations are based on Barbara's time of 22:30 at age 64. This is not Barbara's best time, which is 20:11 at age 42, but it is the best age corrected.

Barbara has been close to her line for most of the races, a remarkably consistent performance. She is someone who has slowed down no faster than predicted. This provides support for the regression line in that there are at least some people who can stay on it! Barbara was off the line some at age 68, which may in part be due to having had Covid earlier in the year. However, her age 69 time is essentially back on the line.