Predicted Minimum Age Year Time Time Difference 40 1994 20:52 18:19 2:33 41 1995 20:15 18:28 1:47 42 1996 20:11 18:38 1:33 43 1997 21:29 18:47 2:42 44 1998 20:34 18:57 1:37 45 1999 22:05 19:07 2:58 46 2000 21:36 19:17 2:19 47 2001 21:03 19:27 1:36 48 2002 20:58 19:36 1:22 49 2003 21:42 19:47 1:55 50 2004 21:09 19:57 1:12 51 2005 22:04 20:07 1:57 52 2006 21:15 20:18 0:57 53 2007 21:34 20:28 1:06 54 2008 22:13 20:39 1:34 55 2009 21:31 20:49 0:42 56 2010 22:40 21:00 1:40 57 2011 22:17 21:11 1:06 58 2012 21:38 21:22 0:16 59 2013 22:34 21:33 1:01 60 2014 22:33 21:44 0:49 61 2015 22:24 21:55 0:29 62 2016 22:28 22:07 0:21 63 2017 23:48 22:18 1:30 64 2018 22:30 22:30 0:00 65 2019 23:35 22:44 0:51 66 2020 24:00 22:60 1:00 67 2021 23:37 23:18 0:19 68 2022 25:45 23:38 2:07 69 2023 24:15 24:00 0:15
The predicted minimum times were computed using the link on the page Compute Aging Effects for "Running, 5K, women." The age factors are based on the results in Fair (2024), "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women".
These calculations are based on Barbara's time of 22:30 at age 64. This is not Barbara's best time, which is 20:11 at age 42, but it is the best age corrected.
Barbara has been close to her line for most of the races, a remarkably consistent performance. She is someone who has slowed down no faster than predicted. This provides support for the regression line in that there are at least some people who can stay on it! Barbara was off the line some at age 68, which may in part be due to having had Covid earlier in the year. However, her age 69 time is essentially back on the line.