Ray C. Fair: New Haven 20K Times

                                                Predicted
                           Actual   Actual       Minimum
No.        Date             Time     Pace   Age    Time   Difference

 1    September 4, 1978    1:24:43    6:49   35   1:12:51   11:52
 2    September 3, 1979    1:23:02    6:41   36   1:13:25    9:37
 3    September 1, 1980    1:35:35    7:41   37   1:13:59   21:36
 4    September 7, 1981    sick              38   1:14:33         
 5    September 6, 1982    1:25:45    6:54   39   1:15:07   10:38
 6    September 5, 1983    1:32:37    7:27   40   1:15:42   16:55
 7    September 3, 1984    1:23:49    6:45   41   1:16:17    7:32
 8    September 2, 1985    1:19:44    6:25   42   1:16:53    2:51
 9    September 1, 1986    1:18:40    6:20   43   1:17:28    1:12
10    September 7, 1987    1:21:27    6:33   44   1:18:04    3:23
11    September 5, 1988    1:21:50    6:35   45   1:18:40    3:10
12    September 7, 1989    1:23:12    6:42   46   1:19:16    3:56
13    September 3, 1990    1:23:15    6:42   47   1:19:53    3:22
14    September 2, 1991    1:20:30    6:29   48   1:20:30    0:00
15    September 7, 1992    1:22:48    6:40   49   1:21:07    1:41
16    September 6, 1993    1:26:57    7:00   50   1:21:45    5:12
17    September 5, 1994    1:29:17    7:11   51   1:22:23    6:54
18    September 4, 1995    1:26:31    6:58   52   1:23:01    3:30
19    September 2, 1996    1:26:13    6:56   53   1:23:39    2:34
20    September 1, 1997    1:32:09    7:25   54   1:24:18    7:51
21    September 7, 1998    1:38:52    7:57   55   1:24:57   13:55
22    September 6, 1999    1:34:35    7:37   56   1:25:37    8:58
23    September 4, 2000    1:30:48    7:18   57   1:26:16    4:32
24    September 3, 2001    1:31:40    7:23   58   1:26:56    4:44
25    September 2, 2002    1:36:22    7:46   59   1:27:37    8:45
26    September 1, 2003    1:36:47    7:47   60   1:28:22    8:25
27    September 6, 2004    1:36:26    7:46   61   1:29:11    7:15
28    September 5, 2005    1:54:44    9:14   62   1:30:03   24:41
29    September 4, 2006    1:49:18    8:48   63   1:30:60   18:18
30    September 3, 2007    1:43:19    8:19   64   1:31:60   11:19
31    September 1, 2008    1:51:49    9:00   65   1:33:05   18:44
32    September 7, 2009    2:05:55   10:08   66   1:34:14   31:41
33    September 6, 2010    1:54:53    9:15   67   1:35:27   19:26
34    September 5, 2011    2:07:10   10:14   68   1:36:45   30:25
35    September 3, 2012    1:58:06    9:30   69   1:38:08   19:58
36    September 2, 2013    injured           70   1:39:35         
37    September 1, 2014    2:15:49   10:56   71   1:41:08   34:41
38    September 7, 2015    2:24:18   11:37   72   1:42:47   41:31
39    September 5, 2016    2:58:02   14:20   73   1:44:30   73:32
40    September 4, 2017    2:32:07   12:14   74   1:46:20   45:47
41    September 3, 2018    2:57:25   14:17   75   1:48:15   69:10
42    September 2, 2019    2:44:52   13:16   76   1:50:17   54:35
43    September 7, 2020    2:38:03   12:43   77   1:52:25   45:38
44    September 6, 2021    2:56:35   14:13   78   1:54:40   61:55
45    September 5, 2022    2:57:59   14:19   79   1:57:02   60:57
46    September 4, 2023    3:17:36   15:54   80   1:59:32   78:04
47    September 2, 2024    3:16:11   15:47   81   2:02:09   74:02

The predicted minimum times were computed using the link on the page Compute Aging Effects for "Running, half marathon, men." The age factors are based on the results in Fair (2024), "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women".

Even though my best time ever was 1:18:40 at age 43, my best age corrected time according to the age factors used on this site was 1:20:30 at age 48. The predicted minimum times above use the 1:20:30 performance at age 48 as the base. As you can see, my races since age 62 have been way off the regression line. The fault, I fear, is not in the line, but in myself. The results for four other people reported on this site, Barbara Pearce, John Courtmanche, Leah Vogel, and Amby Burfoot, suggest that the line is fine.