Predicted Actual Actual Minimum No. Date Time Pace Age Time Difference 1 September 4, 1978 1:24:43 6:49 35 1:12:51 11:52 2 September 3, 1979 1:23:02 6:41 36 1:13:25 9:37 3 September 1, 1980 1:35:35 7:41 37 1:13:59 21:36 4 September 7, 1981 sick 38 1:14:33 5 September 6, 1982 1:25:45 6:54 39 1:15:07 10:38 6 September 5, 1983 1:32:37 7:27 40 1:15:42 16:55 7 September 3, 1984 1:23:49 6:45 41 1:16:17 7:32 8 September 2, 1985 1:19:44 6:25 42 1:16:53 2:51 9 September 1, 1986 1:18:40 6:20 43 1:17:28 1:12 10 September 7, 1987 1:21:27 6:33 44 1:18:04 3:23 11 September 5, 1988 1:21:50 6:35 45 1:18:40 3:10 12 September 7, 1989 1:23:12 6:42 46 1:19:16 3:56 13 September 3, 1990 1:23:15 6:42 47 1:19:53 3:22 14 September 2, 1991 1:20:30 6:29 48 1:20:30 0:00 15 September 7, 1992 1:22:48 6:40 49 1:21:07 1:41 16 September 6, 1993 1:26:57 7:00 50 1:21:45 5:12 17 September 5, 1994 1:29:17 7:11 51 1:22:23 6:54 18 September 4, 1995 1:26:31 6:58 52 1:23:01 3:30 19 September 2, 1996 1:26:13 6:56 53 1:23:39 2:34 20 September 1, 1997 1:32:09 7:25 54 1:24:18 7:51 21 September 7, 1998 1:38:52 7:57 55 1:24:57 13:55 22 September 6, 1999 1:34:35 7:37 56 1:25:37 8:58 23 September 4, 2000 1:30:48 7:18 57 1:26:16 4:32 24 September 3, 2001 1:31:40 7:23 58 1:26:56 4:44 25 September 2, 2002 1:36:22 7:46 59 1:27:37 8:45 26 September 1, 2003 1:36:47 7:47 60 1:28:22 8:25 27 September 6, 2004 1:36:26 7:46 61 1:29:11 7:15 28 September 5, 2005 1:54:44 9:14 62 1:30:03 24:41 29 September 4, 2006 1:49:18 8:48 63 1:30:60 18:18 30 September 3, 2007 1:43:19 8:19 64 1:31:60 11:19 31 September 1, 2008 1:51:49 9:00 65 1:33:05 18:44 32 September 7, 2009 2:05:55 10:08 66 1:34:14 31:41 33 September 6, 2010 1:54:53 9:15 67 1:35:27 19:26 34 September 5, 2011 2:07:10 10:14 68 1:36:45 30:25 35 September 3, 2012 1:58:06 9:30 69 1:38:08 19:58 36 September 2, 2013 injured 70 1:39:35 37 September 1, 2014 2:15:49 10:56 71 1:41:08 34:41 38 September 7, 2015 2:24:18 11:37 72 1:42:47 41:31 39 September 5, 2016 2:58:02 14:20 73 1:44:30 73:32 40 September 4, 2017 2:32:07 12:14 74 1:46:20 45:47 41 September 3, 2018 2:57:25 14:17 75 1:48:15 69:10 42 September 2, 2019 2:44:52 13:16 76 1:50:17 54:35 43 September 7, 2020 2:38:03 12:43 77 1:52:25 45:38 44 September 6, 2021 2:56:35 14:13 78 1:54:40 61:55 45 September 5, 2022 2:57:59 14:19 79 1:57:02 60:57 46 September 4, 2023 3:17:36 15:54 80 1:59:32 78:04 47 September 2, 2024 3:16:11 15:47 81 2:02:09 74:02
The predicted minimum times were computed using the link on the page Compute Aging Effects for "Running, half marathon, men." The age factors are based on the results in Fair (2024), "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women".
Even though my best time ever was 1:18:40 at age 43, my best age corrected time according to the age factors used on this site was 1:20:30 at age 48. The predicted minimum times above use the 1:20:30 performance at age 48 as the base. As you can see, my races since age 62 have been way off the regression line. The fault, I fear, is not in the line, but in myself. The results for four other people reported on this site, Barbara Pearce, John Courtmanche, Leah Vogel, and Amby Burfoot, suggest that the line is fine.