Predicted Actual Actual Minimum No. Date Time Pace Age Time Difference 6 September 5, 1983 1:26:00 6:55 40 1:12:33 13:27 7 September 3, 1984 1:22:00 6:36 41 1:13:06 8:54 8 September 2, 1985 1:24:00 6:46 42 1:13:40 10:20 9 September 1, 1986 1:27:38 7:03 43 1:14:14 13:24 10 September 7, 1987 1:25:30 6:53 44 1:14:48 10:42 11 September 5, 1988 1:25:20 6:52 45 1:15:23 9:57 12 September 7, 1989 1:20:50 6:30 46 1:15:58 4:52 13 September 3, 1990 1:25:15 6:52 47 1:16:33 8:42 14 September 2, 1991 1:23:30 6:43 48 1:17:08 6:22 15 September 7, 1992 1:24:49 6:49 49 1:17:44 7:05 16 September 6, 1993 1:25:30 6:53 50 1:18:20 7:10 17 September 5, 1994 1:21:30 6:33 51 1:18:56 2:34 18 September 4, 1995 1:19:33 6:24 52 1:19:33 0:00 19 September 2, 1996 1:23:07 6:41 53 1:20:10 2:57 20 September 1, 1997 1:24:20 6:47 54 1:20:47 3:33 21 September 7, 1998 1:24:58 6:50 55 1:21:24 3:34 22 September 6, 1999 1:33:32 7:32 56 1:22:02 11:30 23 September 4, 2000 1:31:20 7:21 57 1:22:40 8:40 24 September 3, 2001 1:27:30 7:02 58 1:23:18 4:12 25 September 2, 2002 1:26:46 6:59 59 1:23:58 2:48 26 September 1, 2003 1:25:38 6:53 60 1:24:41 0:57 27 September 6, 2004 1:26:02 6:55 61 1:25:27 0:35 28 September 5, 2005 1:27:38 7:03 62 1:26:18 1:20 29 September 4, 2006 1:30:38 7:18 63 1:27:12 3:26 30 September 3, 2007 1:31:28 7:22 64 1:28:09 3:19 31 September 1, 2008 1:33:30 7:31 65 1:29:11 4:19 32 September 7, 2009 1:31:51 7:23 66 1:30:17 1:34 33 September 6, 2010 1:32:15 7:25 67 1:31:28 0:47 34 September 5, 2011 1:38:15 7:54 68 1:32:43 5:32 35 September 3, 2012 1:36:56 7:48 69 1:34:02 2:54 36 September 2, 2013 1:42:22 8:14 70 1:35:26 6:56 37 September 1, 2014 1:54:11 9:11 71 1:36:55 17:16 39 September 5, 2016 1:47:08 8:38 73 1:40:08 6:60 42 September 2, 2019 1:53:05 9:06 76 1:45:40 7:25 44 September 6, 2021 2:05:52 10:06 77 1:47:43 18:09
The predicted minimum times were computed using the link on the page Compute Aging Effects for "Running, half marathon, men." The age factors are based on the results in Fair (2024), "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women".
These calculations are based on John's time of 1:19:33 at age 52. This is also his personal best time. John's six best age corrected times (all less that 2 minutes off his line) are at ages 52, 60, 61, 62, 66, and 67.