Predicted Actual Actual Minimum No. Date Time Pace Age Time Difference 11 September 5, 1988 1:53:00 9:06 33 1:18:27 34:33 12 September 7, 1989 1:41:41 8:11 34 1:19:04 22:37 13 September 3, 1990 1:40:00 8:03 35 1:19:40 20:20 14 September 2, 1991 1:30:03 7:15 36 1:20:18 9:45 15 September 7, 1992 1:35:25 7:41 37 1:20:56 14:29 16 September 6, 1993 1:29:52 7:14 38 1:21:34 8:18 17 September 5, 1994 1:29:15 7:11 39 1:22:12 7:03 18 September 4, 1995 1:26:15 6:56 40 1:22:51 3:24 19 September 2, 1996 1:29:40 7:13 41 1:23:29 6:11 20 September 1, 1997 1:32:58 7:29 42 1:24:09 8:49 21 September 7, 1998 1:30:09 7:15 43 1:24:48 5:21 22 September 6, 1999 1:49:00 8:46 44 1:25:28 23:32 23 September 4, 2000 1:41:22 8:09 45 1:26:08 15:14 24 September 3, 2001 1:35:56 7:43 46 1:26:49 9:07 25 September 2, 2002 1:32:38 7:27 47 1:27:29 5:09 26 September 1, 2003 1:56:42 9:23 48 1:28:10 28:32 27 September 6, 2004 1:32:26 7:26 49 1:28:52 3:34 28 September 5, 2005 1:35:40 7:42 50 1:29:34 6:06 29 September 4, 2006 1:38:22 7:55 51 1:30:18 8:04 30 September 3, 2007 1:34:44 7:37 52 1:31:06 3:38 31 September 1, 2008 1:36:00 7:43 53 1:31:57 4:03 32 September 7, 2009 1:35:35 7:41 54 1:32:51 2:44 33 September 6, 2010 1:36:09 7:44 55 1:33:49 2:20 34 September 5, 2011 1:44:10 8:23 56 1:34:51 9:19 35 September 3, 2012 1:40:53 8:07 57 1:35:56 4:57 36 September 2, 2013 1:45:43 8:30 58 1:37:06 8:37 37 September 1, 2014 1:53:15 9:07 59 1:38:19 14:56 38 September 7, 2015 1:47:39 8:40 60 1:39:36 8:03 39 September 5, 2016 1:42:02 8:14 61 1:40:58 1:04 40 September 4, 2017 1:43:45 8:21 62 1:42:24 1:21 41 September 3, 2018 2:00:20 9:41 63 1:43:54 16:26 42 September 2, 2019 1:51:39 8:59 64 1:45:29 6:10 43 September 7, 2020 1:45:18 8:28 65 1:47:10 -1:52 44 September 6, 2021 1:48:55 8:46 66 1:48:55 0:00 45 September 5, 2022 1:54:15 9:12 67 1:50:45 3:30 46 September 4, 2023 1:54:11 9:11 68 1:52:41 1:30 47 September 2, 2024 1:55:03 9:15 69 1:54:43 0:20
The predicted minimum times were computed using the link on the page Compute Aging Effects for "Running, half marathon, women." The age factors are based on the results in Fair (2024), "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women".
These calculations are based on Barbara's time of 1:48:55 at age 66. This is not Barbara's best time, which is 1:26:15 at age 40, but it is the best age corrected. The age 65 time is actually below the predicted minimum time by 1:52. In this case I could recompute all her predicted minimum times using 65 as the best age corrected time. I have not done this and have just put in the difference as negative. The 2020 race was virtual, and Barbara said that the distance the app recorded might have been a little short.
As you can see, Barbara's record is remarkable. Except for a few races, she is very close to the line, especially in her 60's. Barbara is one of my best examples of people staying on their line. See in particular the discussion of her 5K times on this site.