Leah Vogel: New Haven 20K Times

                                                  Predicted
                             Actual   Actual       Minimum
  No.      Date               Time     Pace   Age   Time   Difference

   20   September 1, 1997   1:48:56    8:46   40   1:22:47   26:09
   21   September 7, 1998   1:38:06    7:54   41   1:23:26   14:40
   22   September 6, 1999   1:32:11    7:25   42   1:24:06    8:05
   23   September 4, 2000   1:37:01    7:48   43   1:24:45   12:16
   24   September 3, 2001   1:33:19    7:31   44   1:25:25    7:54
   25   September 2, 2002   1:38:19    7:55   45   1:26:05   12:14
   26   September 1, 2003   1:34:51    7:38   46   1:26:45    8:06
   27   September 6, 2004   1:38:49    7:57   47   1:27:26   11:23
   28   September 5, 2005   1:32:41    7:27   48   1:28:07    4:34
   29   September 4, 2006   1:29:55    7:14   49   1:28:48    1:07
   30   September 3, 2007   1:29:30    7:12   50   1:29:30    0:00
   31   September 1, 2008   1:33:32    7:32   51   1:30:15    3:17
   32   September 7, 2009   injured           52   1:31:02         
   33   September 6, 2010   1:34:04    7:34   53   1:31:53    2:11
   34   September 5, 2011   1:35:43    7:42   54   1:32:48    2:55
   35   September 3, 2012   1:37:57    7:53   55   1:33:45    4:12
   36   September 2, 2013   1:47:49    8:41   56   1:34:47   13:02
   39   September 5, 2016   1:41:11    8:08   59   1:38:15    2:56
   40   September 4, 2017   1:41:39    8:11   60   1:39:32    2:07

The predicted minimum times were computed using the link on the page Compute Aging Effects for "Running, half marathon, women." The age factors are based on the results in Fair (2024), "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women".

These calculations are based on Leah's time of 1:29:30 at age 50. This is Leah's personal best time and also her best time age corrected. Leah has been close to her line since age 48, not counting the 2013 race, which had very humid weather.