Latest Update: February 5, 2004: US model has been updated through 2003:4. See Forecast Memo.
This part of the site brings the power of large scale macroeconometric analysis to anyone with access to the internet. It is a resource for business forecasters, government policy analysts, macroeconomic researchers, teachers, and students. You can:
  1. Work with a U.S. macroeconometric model (US model) or a multicountry econometric model (MC model) to forecast, do policy analysis, and examine historical episodes. For example, you can change government policy variables and examine the estimated effects of the changes.
  2. Table and graph online and/or download all or part of the historical data, forecast data, and data you may have created.
  3. Read online and/or download all the documentation, memos, and papers.
  4. Download for use on your own computer the Fair-Parke (FP) program, the US model, the MC model, and the US model in EViews format.

The main reference for the US and MC models is Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works, which contains a complete description of the models. See in particular Chapter 2 and Appendices A and B. A briefer discussion of the US model, aimed at student users, is in The US Model Workbook.

Getting Started

The order of reading for the US model should be:

  1. What are the US and MC Models and Why Use Them Over Commercial Models?
  2. Do I need to register?
  3. About US User Datasets
  4. Taking EX and PIM as exogenous: this is only for advanced users
  5. The US Model Workbook: read the Preface and then decide what else you need to read

The order of the additional reading for the MC model should be:

  1. Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works: at least skim this.
  2. About MC User Datasets.
  3. The MC Model Workbook (pdf) : Chapter 1.

When you are ready to use the US model, click "Solve" after US Model below, and when you are ready to use the MC model, click "Solve" after the MC model below.

The US Model (Solve)
Appendix A (pdf)
Forecast Memo
Forecast Record
Download for own PC use

The MC Model (Solve)
Forecast Memo
Download for own PC use

The Fair-Parke Program

Articles About the Site