MCE Model ROW Forecast: January 30, 2010

This memo contains tables of forecasts of the main variables in the model for all the countries except the United States. The forecasts for the United States are discussed in US Forecast Memo. The first set of tables is by variable, and the second set is by country. The values presented are percentage changes at annual rates (in percentage points) except for variables UR, RS, RB, SPCT, and ZZ, which are in levels (in percentage points). The first set of tables presents only yearly values, but the second set also presents quarterly values for the quarterly countries. When a value is marked with a ~, this denotes the last observed value of the variable; all the values after that are forecast values. A value of 99.9 in a table indicates that data do not exist for that variable for the particular country.

The tables are self explanatory, and it will be left to the reader to pour over them. If you want more details for a particular country than are in the tables, you can do this by examining MCEBASE. If you disagree with the choices of some of the exogenous-variable values, you can change them and then solve for a new forecast. It is thus easy to examine the sensitivity of the forecasts to alternative exogenous-variable assumptions. You can also add factor the equations if desired.

For each country except the United States the exogenous variables TT and EXDS have been chosen to have the predicted values of real GDP (Y) be roughly in line with the current consensus view. This "forecast" should thus be considered less an independent forecast from the model and more a consensus baseline around which experiments can be made. The forecast for the United States, on the other hand, is much more of an independent forecast from the model.