US Update: July 30, 2020


This update is based on the national income and product accounts (NIPA) data that were released on July 30, 2020.

The Latest Version of the US Model

For this update the US model has been reestimated through 2019:4 using the latest revised data. Data for 2020:1 and 2020:2 have not been used in the estimation. These estimates and the complete specification of the model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: July 30, 2020. A complete discussion of the January 28, 2018, version of the US model is in Macroeconometric Modeling: 2018. The current version is the same as the January 28, 2018, version except that it has been estimated through 2019:4 rather than 2017:4.

Unless otherwise noted, the flow variables in the model are presented in this memo and on the site at quarterly rates. This is a change from versions dated July 31, 2011, and back, where the flow variables were presented at annual rates. To convert quarterly rates to annual rates, just multiply by four.

Data on selected variables are presented in the following: Selected variables---html, Selected variables---pdf file. If you want more detail, click "Solve current version" after "US Model," create a data set, and then go immediately to "Examine the results without solving the model." You can then examine any variable in the model.