Work with the US and MC Models

US Model Update, October 29, 2017

The US model has been updated through 2017:3---see US Forecast Memo and Selected Variables---html, Selected Variables---pdf. The forecast goes through 2022.

Warning

The software for the US model changed beginning with the October 30, 2011, version. All flow variables are now at quarterly rates rather than at annual rates as before. The software is a subset of that used for the multicountry models. Ignore any country except the United States when setting up your job. Only the US model by itself is being solved. The base dataset is YAVBASE with a password of USBASE. This is a change from earlier versions where the base dataset was BASE with a password of BASE. There is also a trick needed if you want to use a prediction period other than the default forecast period and you want the new prediction period to begin other than in the first quarter of the year. See About US Model User Datasets for more details.

MC Model Update, November 11, 2013

The multicountry model has been updated through data available as of November 11, 2013. It incorporates the US model updated through November 11, 2013. This version is called the MCI model. The forecast memo is MCI Forecast Memo.

Introduction

This part of the site brings the power of large scale macroeconometric analysis to anyone with access to the internet. It is a resource for business forecasters, government policy analysts, macroeconomic researchers, teachers, and students. You can:
  • Work with a U.S. macroeconometric model or a multicountry econometric model to forecast, do policy analysis, and examine historical episodes. For example, you can change government policy variables and examine the estimated effects of the changes.
  • Table and graph online and/or download all or part of the historical data, forecast data, and data you may have created.
  • Read online and/or download all the documentation, memos, and papers.
  • Download for use on your own computer the Fair-Parke (FP) program and the models.
  • Download for use on your own computer the US model in EViews.

Latest Versions of the US and MC Models

  • The estimates and complete specification of the latest version of the US model are presented in Appendix A: The US Model: October 29, 2017 . The workbook that goes with this version is The US Model Workbook, October 29, 2017 . A complete discussion of the version of the US model dated November 11, 2013, is in Macroeconometric Modeling. The current version differs from the November 11, 2013, version in the updated estimates and in the addition of the lagged value of housing wealth to the IHH equation, equation 4. Also, the assumption of first order serial correlation of the error terms has been dropped from equations 26 and 29, explaining CUR and INTG.
  • The MCI model is the exact version of the "MC" model in Macroeconometric Modeling. The estimates and complete specification of this version are presented in Appendices A and B of the document. The date of this version is November 11, 2013. The workbook that goes with this version is The MCI Model Workbook: November 11, 2013 .

Previous Versions of the US and MC Models

Previous US Versions
Previous MC Versions

Getting Started

The reading for the US model should be:

The additional reading for the MCI model should be:

When you are ready to use the US or MCI model, click (solve) below.

The US Model (solve) NOTE: For some options you may need to hit the back space arrow on your browser one or two times once you have made any changes to get back to the main page. Doing this will not erase your changes.

Forecast Memo and Selected Variables---html, Selected Variables---pdf
Forecast Record
Download the US Model for the Fair-Parke program
Download the US Model for EViews
Appendix A
The US Model Workbook
Macroeconometric Modeling Contains a complete description of the November 11, 2013, version of the US model.

The MCI Model (solve) NOTE: For some options you may need to hit the back space arrow on your browser one or two times once you have made any changes to get back to the main page. Doing this will not erase your changes.

MCI Forecast Memo
Download the MCI Model for the Fair-Parke program
Download the MCI Model for EViews
Appendix A
Appendix B
The MCI Model Workbook
Macroeconometric Modeling Contains a complete description of the MCI model.

The Fair-Parke Program

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