The Model

The US Model on this Website

The US model is a resource for business forecasters, government policy analysts, macroeconomic researchers, teachers, and students. One can on the site:

• Use the model to forecast, do policy analysis, and examine historical episodes. For example, one can change government policy variables and examine the estimated effects of the changes.
• Table and graph online and/or download all or part of the historical data, forecast data, and data that are creaded by the user.
• Read online and/or download all the documentation, memos, and papers.
• Download for use on one's own computer the Fair-Parke (FP) program and the US model.
• Download for use on one's own computer the US model in EViews.

History

The US model was developed by Ray Fair in 1974-1976, and it has been used since then for research, forecasting, policy analysis, and teaching. It has been available for use on personal computers since 1983 and was the first such model to be so. (And it was first on the Web!) The current version contains 25 stochastic equations and about 100 identities. The data base begins in the first quarter of 1952. The basic estimation technique is two-stage least squares. The model accounts for all flow-of-fund and balance-sheet constraints, which makes it useful for considering various monetary policy options.

References

The two main references for the US model are:

Macroeconometric Modeling: 2018. link
Macroeconomic Modeling: The Cowles Commission Approach, M.I.T. Press, 2024. link

These references are discussed in

Macro Research link

You should read this link before working with the US model on this website.

List of Variables and Equations

The estimates and complete specification of the latest version of the US model are presented in
Appendix A: The US Model: April 30, 2025.

The US Model Workbook

There is a workbook of the model for students, which is updated each quarter:
The US Model Workbook, April 30, 2025.

Comparison to Other Models

The US model is completely estimated---no calibration---and it has been extensively tested and analyzed. It is probably the best approximation to the U.S. economy available. It does not have to be subjectively adjusted to produce forecasts or to analyze policy changes. Unlike most macroeconometric models, it is consistently estimated (by two-stage least squares). The past forecasting record of the model is updated each quarter, so the user always has a complete record of how the model has done. The first forecast is dated September 23, 1983. See Forecast Record.