Ray C. Fair: New Haven 20K Times
Predicted
Minimum
No.   Date Time     Pace   Age      Time Difference
  1 September 4, 1978 1:24:43  6:49 35 1:12:31 12:12
  2 September 3, 1979 1:23:02  6:41 36 1:13:06   9:56
  3 September 1, 1980 1:35:35  7:41 37 1:13:41 21:54
  4 September 7, 1981   sick   - 38 1:14:16     -
  5 September 6, 1982 1:25:45  6:54 39 1:14:55 10:50
  6 September 5, 1983 1:32:37  7:27 40 1:15:30 17:07
  7 September 3, 1984 1:23:49  6:45 41 1:16:05   7:44
  8 September 2, 1985 1:19:44  6:25 42 1:16:44   3:00
  9 September 1, 1986 1:18:40  6:20 43 1:17:19   1:21
10 September 7, 1987 1:21:27  6:33 44 1:17:58   3:29
11 September 5, 1988 1:21:50  6:35 45 1:18:37   3:13
12 September 7, 1989 1:23:12  6:42 46 1:19:12   4:00
13 September 3, 1990 1:23:15  6:42 47 1:19:51   3:24
14 September 2, 1991 1:20:30  6:29 48 1:20:30   0:00
15 September 7, 1992 1:22:48  6:40 49 1:21:09   1:39
16 September 6, 1993 1:26:57  7:00 50 1:21:48   5:09
17 September 5, 1994 1:29:17  7:11 51 1:22:28   6:49
18 September 4, 1995 1:26:31  6:58 52 1:23:07   3:24
19 September 2, 1996 1:26:13  6:56 53 1:23:46   2:27
20 September 1, 1997 1:32:09  7:25 54 1:24:29   7:40
21 September 7, 1998 1:38:52  7:57 55 1:25:08 13:44
22 September 6, 1999 1:34:35  7:37 56 1:25:52   8:43
23 September 4, 2000 1:30:48  7:18 57 1:26:31   4:17
24 September 3, 2001 1:31:40  7:23 58 1:27:15   4:25
25 September 2, 2002 1:36:22  7:46 59 1:27:54   8:28
26 September 1, 2003 1:36:47  7:47 60 1:28:37   8:10
27 September 6, 2004 1:36:26  7:46 61 1:29:21   7:05
28 September 5, 2005 1:54:44  9:14 62 1:30:04 24:40
29 September 4, 2006 1:49:18  8:48 63 1:30:48 18:30
30 September 3, 2007 1:43:19  8:19 64 1:31:31 11:48
31 September 1, 2008 1:51:49  9:00 65 1:32:15 19:34
32 September 7, 2009 2:05:55 10:08 66 1:33:03 32:52
33 September 6, 2010 1:54:53  9:15 67 1:33:47 21:06
34 September 5, 2011 2:07:10 10:14 68 1:34:30 31:40
35 September 3, 2012 1:58:06  9:30 69 1:35:18 22:48
36 September 2, 2013   injured   - 70 1:36:01     -
37 September 1, 2014 2:15:49 10:56 71 1:36:49 39:00
38 September 7, 2015 2:24:18 11:37 72 1:37:37 46:41
39 September 5, 2016 2:58:02 14:20 73 1:38:25 79:37
40 September 4, 2017 2:32:07 12:14 74 1:39:13 69:37
41 September 3, 2018 2:57:25 14:17 75 1:40:01 77:24

The predicted minimum times were computed on the aging part of this site: Aging in Sports and Chess. The 2007 age factors have been used. Even though my best time ever was 1:18:40 at age 43, my best age corrected time according to the age factors used on this site was 1:20:30 at age 48. The predicted minimum times above use the 1:20:30 performance at age 48 as the base. As you can see, my races since age 62 have been way off the regression line. The fault, I fear, is not in the line, but in myself. The results for four other people reported on this site, Barbara Pearce, John Courtmanche, Leah Vogel, and Amby Burfoot, suggest that the line is fine.

The weather was a factor in the 2014 race---humid and hot. If you look at the results for Barbara and John on this site, they were well off their lines in 2014 (but still much closer than I was!). For the 2015 race I could not run at all for weeks 3, 4, and 5 before the race. So I had only 2 weeks to train, which I managed to do enough to be able to finish. For the 2016 race I was injured and could not run for about 2 months before the race. I could walk, and I walked the race in slightly under 3 hours. The 2007 time was poor, and I had to walk the 2018 race because of a hamstring injury, which I again did in less than 3 hours. The cutoff time is 3 hours and 15 minutes, so I officially finished these races! Of those who are still running the 20K (or half marathon), there are 10 streakers left---those who ran all 41 races---and I think I am 11th at 39 races.