Ray C. Fair: New Haven 20K Times

Predicted
Minimum
No.   Date Time     Pace   Age      Time Difference
  1 September 4, 1978 1:24:43  6:49 35
  2 September 3, 1979 1:23:02  6:41 36
  3 September 1, 1980 1:35:35  7:41 37
  4 September 7, 1981   sick   - 38
  5 September 6, 1982 1:25:45  6:54 39
  6 September 5, 1983 1:32:37  7:27 40 1:14:25 18:12
  7 September 3, 1984 1:23:49  6:45 41 1:15:09   7:40
  8 September 2, 1985 1:19:44  6:25 42 1:15:53   3:06
  9 September 1, 1986 1:18:40  6:20 43 1:16:35   2:02
10 September 7, 1987 1:21:27  6:33 44 1:17:24   4:03
11 September 5, 1988 1:21:50  6:35 45 1:18:10   3:40
12 September 7, 1989 1:23:12  6:42 46 1:18:56   4:16
13 September 3, 1990 1:23:15  6:42 47 1:19:43   3:32
14 September 2, 1991 1:20:30  6:29 48 1:20:30   0:00
15 September 7, 1992 1:22:48  6:40 49 1:21:18   1:30
16 September 6, 1993 1:26:57  7:00 50 1:22:06   4:51
17 September 5, 1994 1:29:17  7:11 51 1:22:55   6:22
18 September 4, 1995 1:26:31  6:58 52 1:23:44   2:47
19 September 2, 1996 1:26:13  6:56 53 1:24:33   1:40
20 September 1, 1997 1:32:09  7:25 54 1:25:23   6:46
21 September 7, 1998 1:38:52  7:57 55 1:26:14 12:38
22 September 6, 1999 1:34:35  7:37 56 1:27:05   7:30
23 September 4, 2000 1:30:48  7:18 57 1:27:57   2:51
24 September 3, 2001 1:31:40  7:23 58 1:28:49   2:51
25 September 2, 2002 1:36:22  7:46 59 1:29:41   6:41
26 September 1, 2003 1:36:47  7:47 60 1:30:35   6:12
27 September 6, 2004 1:36:26  7:46 61 1:31:28   4:58
28 September 5, 2005 1:54:44  9:14 62 1:32:23 22:21
29 September 4, 2006 1:49:18  8:48 63 1:33:17 16:01
30 September 3, 2007 1:43:19  8:19 64 1:34:13   9:06
31 September 1, 2008 1:51:49  9:00 65 1:35:08 16:41
32 September 7, 2009 2:05:55 10:08 66 1:36:05 29:50
33 September 6, 2010 1:54:53  9:15 67 1:37:02 17:51
34 September 5, 2011 2:07:10 10:14 68 1:37:59 29:11
35 September 3, 2012 1:58:06  9:30 69 1:38:57 19:09
36 September 2, 2013   injured   - 70 1:39:56     -
37 September 1, 2014 2:15:49 10:56 71 1:40:55 34:54
38 September 7, 2015 2:24:18 11:37 72 1:41:55 42:23
39 September 5, 2016 2:58:02 14:20 73 1:42:55 75:07
40 September 4, 2017 2:32:07 12:14 74 1:43:56 48:11
41 September 3, 2018 2:57:25 14:17 75 1:44:58 72:27
42 September 2, 2019 2:44:52 13:16 76 1:46:00 58:52
43 September 7, 2020 2:38:03 12:43 77 1:47:03 51:00
44 September 6, 2021 2:56:35 14:13 78 1:48:08 68:27
45 September 5, 2022 2:57:59 14:19 79 1:49:38 68:21

The predicted minimum times were computed using the page: Compute Aging Effects. The new, 2018 age factors have been used, which begin at age 40. Even though my best time ever was 1:18:40 at age 43, my best age corrected time according to the age factors used on this site was 1:20:30 at age 48. The predicted minimum times above use the 1:20:30 performance at age 48 as the base. As you can see, my races since age 62 have been way off the regression line. The fault, I fear, is not in the line, but in myself. The results for four other people reported on this site, Barbara Pearce, John Courtmanche, Leah Vogel, and Amby Burfoot, suggest that the line is fine. (The 5K discussion for Barbara Pearce contains a comparison of the 2007 and 2018 age factors.)