Barbara Pearce: New Haven 20K Times
Predicted
Minimum
No.   Date Time     Pace   Age      Time Difference
11 September 5, 1988 1:53:00 9:06 33 1:21:54 31:06
12 September 7, 1989 1:41:41 8:11 34 1:21:54 19:47
13 September 3, 1990 1:40:00 8:03 35 1:21:54 18:06
14 September 2, 1991 1:30:03 7:15 36 1:22:33   7:30
15 September 7, 1992 1:35:25 7:41 37 1:23:13 12:12
16 September 6, 1993 1:29:52 7:14 38 1:23:52   6:00
17 September 5, 1994 1:29:15 7:11 39 1:24:36   4:39
18 September 4, 1995 1:26:15 6:56 40 1:25:15   1:00
19 September 2, 1996 1:29:40 7:13 41 1:25:55   3:45
20 September 1, 1997 1:32:58 7:29 42 1:26:39   6:19
21 September 7, 1998 1:30:09 7:15 43 1:27:18   2:51
22 September 6, 1999 1:49:00 8:46 44 1:28:03 20:57
23 September 4, 2000 1:41:22 8:09 45 1:28:47 12:35
24 September 3, 2001 1:35:56 7:43 46 1:29:26   6:30
25 September 2, 2002 1:32:38 7:27 47 1:30:10   2:28
26 September 1, 2003 1:56:42 9:23 48 1:30:55 25:47
27 September 6, 2004 1:32:26 7:26 49 1:31:39   0:47
28 September 5, 2005 1:35:40 7:42 50 1:32:23   3:17
29 September 4, 2006 1:38:22 7:55 51 1:33:07   5:15
30 September 3, 2007 1:34:44 7:37 52 1:33:51   0:53
31 September 1, 2008 1:36:00 7:43 53 1:34:36   1:24
32 September 7, 2009 1:35:35 7:41 54 1:35:25   0:10
33 September 6, 2010 1:36:09 7:44 55 1:36:09   0:00
34 September 5, 2011 1:44:10 8:23 56 1:36:58   7:12
35 September 3, 2012 1:40:53 8:07 57 1:37:42   3:11
36 September 2, 2013 1:45:43 8:30 58 1:38:32   7:11
37 September 1, 2014 1:53:15 9:07 59 1:39:16 13:59
38 September 7, 2015 1:47:39 8:40 60 1:40:05   7:34
39 September 5, 2016 1:42:02 8:14 61 1:40:54   1:08
40 September 4, 2017 1:43:45 8:21 62 1:41:43   2:02
41 September 3, 2018 2:00:20 9:41 63 1:42:32  18:37

The predicted minimum times were computed on the aging part of this site: Aging in Sports and Chess. The 2007 age factors have been used. These calculations are based on an age corrected best time of 1:36:09 at age 55. This is not Barbara's best time, which is 1:26:15 at age 40, but it is the best age corrected. Barbara's four races between ages 52 and 55 were remarkable---essentially on the line each race. Her time for the 2011 race was not as good, but she came back closer to the line in 2012. The 2013 race had very humid weather, and the weather for the 2014 race was even worse. For the 2015 race, which had hot but not humid weather, Barbara was off the line by 7:34. However, she was essentially back on the line in 2016, off by only 68 seconds! She also did well in 2017, close to the line. The 2018 time is way off, but it was again hot and humid. Barbara is one of my best examples of people staying on their line, conditional on the weather.