Barbara Pearce: New Haven 20K Times

Predicted
Minimum
No.   Date Time     Pace   Age      Time Difference
11 September 5, 1988 1:53:00 9:06 33
12 September 7, 1989 1:41:41 8:11 34
13 September 3, 1990 1:40:00 8:03 35
14 September 2, 1991 1:30:03 7:15 36
15 September 7, 1992 1:35:25 7:41 37
16 September 6, 1993 1:29:52 7:14 38
17 September 5, 1994 1:29:15 7:11 39
18 September 4, 1995 1:26:15 6:56 40 1:22:58   3:17
19 September 2, 1996 1:29:40 7:13 41 1:23:47   4:53
20 September 1, 1997 1:32:58 7:29 42 1:24:37   8:21
21 September 7, 1998 1:30:09 7:15 43 1:25:27   4:42
22 September 6, 1999 1:49:00 8:46 44 1:26:18 22:42
23 September 4, 2000 1:41:22 8:09 45 1:27:09 14:13
24 September 3, 2001 1:35:56 7:43 46 1:28:01   7:55
25 September 2, 2002 1:32:38 7:27 47 1:28:53   3:45
26 September 1, 2003 1:56:42 9:23 48 1:29:46 26:56
27 September 6, 2004 1:32:26 7:26 49 1:30:39   1:47
28 September 5, 2005 1:35:40 7:42 50 1:31:32   4:08
29 September 4, 2006 1:38:22 7:55 51 1:32:27   5:55
30 September 3, 2007 1:34:44 7:37 52 1:33:21   1:23
31 September 1, 2008 1:36:00 7:43 53 1:34:17   1:43
32 September 7, 2009 1:35:35 7:41 54 1:35:13   0:22
33 September 6, 2010 1:36:09 7:44 55 1:36:09   0:00
34 September 5, 2011 1:44:10 8:23 56 1:37:06   7:04
35 September 3, 2012 1:40:53 8:07 57 1:38:04   2:49
36 September 2, 2013 1:45:43 8:30 58 1:39:02   6:41
37 September 1, 2014 1:53:15 9:07 59 1:40:00 13:15
38 September 7, 2015 1:47:39 8:40 60 1:41:00   6:39
39 September 5, 2016 1:42:02 8:14 61 1:41:59   0:03
40 September 4, 2017 1:43:45 8:21 62 1:43:00   0:45
41 September 3, 2018 2:00:20 9:41 63 1:44:01  16:19
42 September 2, 2019 1:51:39 8:59 64 1:45:03   6:36
43 September 7, 2020 1:45:18 8:28 65 1:46:05 -0:47
44 September 6, 2021 1:48:55 8:46 66 1:47:08   1:47

The predicted minimum times were computed using the page: Compute Aging Effects. The new, 2018 age factors have been used, which begin at age 40. These calculations are based on Barbara's time of 1:36:09 at age 55. This is not Barbara's best time, which is 1:26:15 at age 40, but it is the best age corrected. Barbara's four races between ages 52 and 55 were remarkable---essentially on her line each race. Her races at ages 61 and 62 were also essentially on her line. The age 65 time is actually below the predicted minimum time by 47 seconds! In this case I should recompute all her predicted minimum times using 65 as the best age corrected time. I have not done this and have just put in the difference as negative. The 2020 race was virtual, and Barbara said that the distance the app recorded might have been a little short. But for sure this is one of her best age corrected times ever. For the 2021 race Barbara was essentially on her line, off by only 1:47. Barbara is one of my best examples of people staying on their line. See in particular the discussion of her 5K times on this site.