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"Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy
on the 1980 Economy," The American Economic Review,
May 1981, 160-165.
This paper is the beginning of my attempt to modify the interest rate
reaction function presented in 1978#5 for the
switch in monetary policy in October 1979. In this paper I used three
dummy variables. In later work I switched to the use of
one dummy variable multiplied by the lagged growth of the money supply,
which is the specification in the current version of the US model (see
equation 30). This paper presents estimates of the effects of the
monetary switch on the economy. The method developed
in 1980#2 is used to estimate standard errors
of the estimated effects.