Ray C. Fair: Research by Date

1969

  1. The Short-Run Demand for Workers and Hours, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1969,intro.
    pfd files: whole book, toc,preface,bib,index , chapter 1, chapter 2 , chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5 , chapter 6, chapter 7 , chapter 8 , chapter 9 , chapter 10 , chapter 11 , appendix .

1970

  1. "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, May 1970, 507-516, intro, pdf file , pdf file .

  2. "Aggregate Price Changes and Price Expectations," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, November 1970, 18-28, intro, pdf file .

1971

  1. "Sales Expectations and Short-Run Production Decisions," Southern Economic Journal, January 1971, 267-275, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money Illusion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1971, 164-168, intro, pdf file .

  3. "The Determination of Yield Differentials Between Debt Instruments of the Same Maturity," (with B. G. Malkiel), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1971, 733-749, intro, pdf file .

  4. "The Optimal Distribution of Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 1971, 551-579, intro, pdf file .

  5. A Short-Run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy, D. C. Heath and Co., 1971, intro.
    pfd files: whole book , toc,preface,bib,index , chapter 1 , chapter 2 , chapter 3 , chapter 4 , chapter 5 , chapter 6 , chapter 7 , chapter 8 , chapter 9 , chapter 10 , chapter 11 , chapter 11 , chapter 11 , chapter 11 , chapter 11 , appendix A . appendix B .

1972

  1. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," (with D. M. Jaffee), Econometrica, May 1972, 497-514, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Disequilibrium in Housing Models," Journal of Finance, May 1972, 207-221, intro, pdf file .

  3. "The Implications of the Proposals of the Hunt Commission for the Mortgage and Housing Markets: An Empirical Study," (with D. M. Jaffee), in Policies for A More Competitive Financial System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 8, June 1972, 99-148, intro, pdf file .

  4. "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Auto-regressive Errors by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, November 1972, 444-449, intro, pdf file .

1973

  1. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Equation Systems with Auto-regressive Residuals," (with G. C.Chow), Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, January 1973, 17-28, intro, pdf file .

  2. "A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Models," International Economic Review, June 1973, 261-277, intro, pdf file .

1974

  1. "On the Solution of Optimal Control Problems as Maximization Problems," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, January 1974, 135-154, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study," (with H. H. Kelejian), Econometrica, January 1974, 177-190, intro, pdf file .

  3. "An Evaluation of A Short-Run Forecasting Model," International Economic Review, June 1974, 285-303, intro, pdf file .

  4. "On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, October 1974, 667-677, intro, pdf file .

  5. A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume I: The Theoretical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1974, intro.
    pfd files: whole book , toc,preface,bib,index , chapter 1 , chapter 2 , chapter 3 , chapter 4 , chapter 5 , chapter 6 , chapter 7 , chapter 8 , appendix .

1976

  1. A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume II: The Empirical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1976, intro.
    pfd files: whole book , toc,preface,bib,index , chapter 1 , chapter 2 , chapter 3 , chapter 4 , chapter 5 , chapter 6 , chapter 7 , chapter 8 , chapter 9 , chapter 10 , chapter 11 , appendix A , appendix B .

1977

  1. "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator," Econometrica, October 1977, 1723-1727, intro, pdf file .

1978

  1. "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Journal of Political Economy, February 1978, 45-61, intro, pdf file , data used in the paper.

  2. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1978, 159-173, intro, pdf file .

  3. "The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance," International Economic Review, June 1978, 289-309, intro, pdf file .

  4. "Inflation and Unemployment in a Macroeconometric Model," in After The Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 19, June 1978, 164-193, intro, pdf file .

  5. "The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions About the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Econometrica, September 1978, 1165-1179, intro, pdf file .

  6. "A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1978, 411-417, intro, pdf file .

1979

  1. "A Model of the Balance of Payments," Journal of International Economics, February 1979, 25-46, intro, pdf file .

  2. "On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies," The American Economic Review, May 1979, 86-91, intro, pdf file .

  3. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, August 1979, 701-718, intro, pdf file .

  4. "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," The American Economic Review, September 1979, 539-552, intro, pdf file .

  5. "On Modeling the Economic Linkages Among Countries," in R. Dornbusch and J. A. Frenkel (eds.), International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979, 209-239, intro, pdf file .

1980

  1. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, June 1980, 355-378, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, September 1980, 1381-1391, intro, pdf file .

  3. "Full-Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model," (with W. R. Parke), Journal of Econometrics, September 1980, 269-291, intro, pdf file .

1981

  1. "A Multicountry Econometric Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 541R, April 1981, intro, pdf file: first half , pdf file: second half .

  2. "Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy," The American Economic Review, May 1981, 160-165, intro, pdf file .

  3. "The Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 597, June 1981, intro, pdf file .

1982

  1. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1982, 322-325, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries," Journal of Political Economy, June 1982, 507-535, intro, pdf file .

  3. "The Effects of Misspecification on Predictive Accuracy," in G. C. Chow and P. Corsi (eds.), Evaluating the Reliability of Macro-Economic Models, John Wiley & Sons, 1982, 193-213, intro, href="pdf/1982C200.PDF">pdf file .

1983

  1. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Rational Expectations Models," (with J. B. Taylor), Econometrica, July 1983, 1169-1185, intro, pdf file .

1984

  1. "Estimated Tradeoffs Between Unemployment and Inflation," in Price Stability and Public Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1984, 57-96, intro, pdf file .

  2. Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1984, intro, online order form.
    pfd files: whole book , toc,preface,notes,bib,index , chapter 1 , chapter 2 , chapter 3 , chapter 4 , chapter 5 , chapter 6 , chapter 7 , chapter 8 , chapter 9 , chapter 10 , chapter 11 , chapter 12 , appendix A, appendix B, appendix C.

1985

  1. "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle," The American Economic Review, March 1985, 239-245, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Macro Simulations for PCs in the Classroom," (with K. E. Case), The American Economic Review, May 1985, 85-90, intro, pdf file .

1986

  1. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Models," in Z. Griliches and M. D. Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Volume III, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1986, 1979-1995, intro, pdf file .

  2. "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further Results," (with L. Alexander), in D. A. Belsley and E. Kuh (eds.), Model Reliability, M.I.T. Press, 1986, 191-212, intro, pdf file .

1987

  1. "Properties of a Multicountry Econometric Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Spring 1987, 83-123, intro, pdf file .

  2. "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1987, 473-480, intro, pdf file .

1988

  1. "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1988, 313-332, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Monetary Economics, September 1988, 301-315, intro, pdf file .

  3. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," (with K. M. Dominguez and M. S. Shapiro), The American Economic Review, September 1988, 595-612, intro, pdf file .

  4. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," (with D. K. Andrews), Review of Economic Studies, October 1988, 615-640, intro, pdf file .

  5. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update," Political Behavior, 1988, 168-179, intro, pdf file .

1989

  1. "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," (with R. J. Shiller), The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1989, 325-331, intro, pdf file .

  2. "The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well," Journal of Monetary Economics, November 1989, 353-370, intro, pdf file .

1990

  1. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," (with R. J. Shiller), The American Economic Review, June 1990, 375-389, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," (with J. B. Taylor), Journal of Applied Econometrics, October-December 1990, 381-392, intro, pdf file .

  3. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1988 Update," November 1990, intro, pdf file .

1991

  1. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," (with K. M. Dominguez), The American Economic Review, December 1991, 1276-1294, intro, pdf file .

  2. "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models," (with L. Alexander), in Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models, Oxford University Press, 1991, 168-197, intro, pdf file .

1992

  1. "Estimation of Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints," (with D. K. Andrews), Journal of Econometrics, 1992, 123-139, intro, pdf file .

  2. "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics," in Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, eds., The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992, 133-147, intro, pdf file .

1993

  1. "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1993, 8-18, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Testing Macroeconometric Models," The American Economic Review, May 1993, 287-293, intro, pdf file .

  3. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, 1993, 169-190, intro, pdf file .

  4. "Estimating Event Probabilities in Macroeconometric Models using Stochastic Simulation," in J. Stock and M. Watson (eds.), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, The University of Chicago Press, 1993, 157-176, intro, pdf file .

1994

  1. "How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?" The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1994, 103-118, intro, pdf file .

  2. Testing Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1994, intro, part of the book on the site, online order form for the complete book.
    pfd files: whole book , toc,preface,bib,index , chapter 1 , chapter 2 , chapter 3 , chapter 4 , chapter 5 , chapter 6 , chapter 7 , chapter 8 , chapter 9 , chapter 10 , chapter 11 , chapter 12 , chapter 13 , appendix A , appendix B .

  3. "Can A Tax Plan Save Baseball?" (with Sharon M. Oster), For The Record, December 1994/ January 1995, 9, intro, pdf file .

1996

  1. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Political Behavior, June 1996, 119-139, intro, pdf file , pdf file .

  2. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 1996, 89-102, intro, pdf file .

  3. "Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," (with E.P. Howrey), Journal of Monetary Economics, October 1996, 173-193, intro, pdf file .

  4. "Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1996, 431-435, intro, pdf file .

  5. "Computational Methods for Macroeconometric Models," in H.M. Amman, D.A. Kendrick, and J. Rust (eds.), Handbook of Computational Economics, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1996, 143-169, intro, pdf file .

1997

  1. "Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24," (with D. J. Macunovich), February 1997, unpublished, intro, pdf file .

1998

  1. "Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU," National Institute Economic Review, April 1998, 90-99. intro, pfd file .

  2. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1996 Update," November 6, 1998, vote update, unpublished, intro, html file .

1999

  1. "Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 1999, 1-28, intro, pdf file .

  2. "A Fiscal Policy Rule for Stabilization," February 1999, unpublished, intro, pdf file .

  3. "Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations," May 1999, unpublished, intro, pfd file .

  4. "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics,?" The American Economic Review, May 1999, 58-62, intro, pdf file .

  5. "What Can Macroeconometric Models Say About Asia-Type Crises?" May 1999, for presentation at the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 23-27, 1999, unpublished, intro, pdf file .

2000

  1. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 2000, 64-71, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy," Business Economics, April 2000, 7-14. intro, pdf file .

2001

  1. "Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules," FRBNY Economic Policy Review, March 2001, 61-72. intro, pdf file .

2002

  1. Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, 2002, Stanford University Press, intro.

  2. "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks" 2002, Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3, intro, pdf file.

  3. "Events that Shook the Market," Journal of Business, October 2002, 713-732, intro, pdf file .

  4. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update," November 1, 2002, vote update, unpublished, intro, html file .

2003

  1. "Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 307-341, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Risk Aversion and Stock Prices," February 2003, intro, pdf file .

  3. "The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford," Eastern Economic Journal, Spring 2003, 159-163, intro, pdf file .

  4. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," 2003, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1, intro, pdf file .

  5. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, June 2003, 245-256, intro, pdf file .

2004

  1. "Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s," Business Economics, January 2004, 43-53, intro, pdf file .

  2. Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works, Harvard University Press, 2004. pdf file--pre-published . pdf file--published .

2005

  1. "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," June 2005, unpublished, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 2005, 645-660, intro, pdf file .

  3. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," 2005, Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19, intro, pdf file).

2006

  1. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update," November 1, 2006, vote update, unpublished, intro, html file .

2007

  1. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," (with John F. Oster), Journal of Sports Economics, February 2007, 3-18, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," Experimental Aging Research, 2007, 37-57, intro, pdf file .

  3. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?" 2007, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12, intro, pdf file.

  4. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 1, 2007-8, 2007. intro, pdf file.

2008

  1. "Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later," (with Danielle Catambay), Nine, Fall 2008, 111-119, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," 2008, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4: Iss. 1, Article 1, intro, pdf file.

  3. "Testing Price Equations, " European Economic Review, November 2008, 1424-1437, intro, Testing Price Equations, prepublished pdf file .

2009

  1. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations, " American Journal of Political Science, January 2009, 55-72, intro, prepublished pdf file .

  2. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Journal of Politics, April 2009, 612-626, intro, pdf file .

2010

  1. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Business Economics, October 2010, 233-243, intro, pdf file .

  2. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Contemporary Economic Policy, October 2010, 439-452, intro, pdf file .

  3. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update," November 11, 2010, vote update, unpublished, intro, pdf file .

2011

  1. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," 2011, NBER, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108, intro, pdf file.

2012

  1. Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition, 2012, Stanford University Press, intro.

  2. "What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem," Contemporary Economic Policy, 30, (2012), 618-628. intro, pdf file.

  3. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability, " Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 99-108, intro, pdf file.

  4. "Has Macro Progressed? " Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, 2-10. intro, pdf file.

2014

  1. "Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?" Business Economics, October 2014, 244-252. intro, pdf file.

  2. "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?" Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 8, 2014-27, 2014. intro, pdf file.

  3. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2014 Update," November 11, 2014, vote update, unpublished, intro, pdf file .

2015

  1. "Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 15, Issue 1, 445-466, 2015. intro, pdf file.

2016

  1. "A Mini Version of the US Model," July 2016, unpublished, intro, pdf file.

2017

  1. "The Optimal Distribution of Income Revisited," August 2017, unpublished, intro, pdf file.

  2. "Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008--2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, March-April 2017, 495-523, intro, pdf file, published article online, published article pdf file.

  3. "Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving," International Economics, May 2017, 15-26. intro, pdf file, published article online, published article pdf file.

2018

  1. "Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events," (with Edward H. Kaplan), The Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2018, 704-711, intro, pdf file. published article pdf file.

  2. "Explaining the Slow U.S. Recovery: 2010-2017," Business Economics, October 2018, 184-194, intro, pdf file . published article pdf file .

  3. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2018 Update," November 14, 2018, vote update, unpublished, intro, pdf file .

2019

  1. "Estimated Costs of Contact in College and High School Male Sports," (with Christopher Champa), Journal of Sports Economics, 2019, 690-717, intro, pdf file, published article pdf file.

  2. "Information Content of DSGE Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, 2019, 1-6. intro, pdf file, published article pdf file.

  3. "Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE Models: Comment," July 2019, in progress. intro, pdf file.

  4. "Presidential Vote Predictions Using Stochastic Simulation and Estimated Probability of a Recession Before the Election: 0.08, " October 30, 2019, vote update, unpublished. intro, pdf file.

  5. "Estimated Costs of Injuries in College and High School Female Sports," (with Christopher Champa), July 2019, in progress. intro, pdf file.

  6. "U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2017, " December 2019, in progress. intro, pdf file.

  7. "Trade Models and Macroeconomics, " December 2019, in progress. intro, pdf file, Appendix, pdf file.

2020

  1. "Some Important Macro Points," April 2020, forthcoming Oxford Review of Economic Policy. intro, pdf file.