Ray C. Fair: Research by Date

1969
  1. The Short-Run Demand for Workers and Hours, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1969, intro
1970
  1. "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, 1970, intro
  2. "Aggregate Price Changes and Price Expectations," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 1970, intro
1971
  1. "Sales Expectations and Short-Run Production Decisions," Southern Economic Journal, 1971, intro
  2. "Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money Illusion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1971, intro,
  3. "The Determination of Yield Differentials Between Debt Instruments of the Same Maturity," (with B. G. Malkiel), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1971, intro
  4. "The Optimal Distribution of Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1971, intro
  5. A Short-Run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy, D. C. Heath and Co., 1971, intro
1972
  1. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," (with D. M. Jaffee), Econometrica, 1972, intro
  2. "Disequilibrium in Housing Models," Journal of Finance, 1972, intro
  3. "The Implications of the Proposals of the Hunt Commission for the Mortgage and Housing Markets: An Empirical Study," (with D. M. Jaffee), in Policies for A More Competitive Financial System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 8, June 1972, 99-148, intro
  4. "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Auto-regressive Errors by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1972, intro
1973
  1. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Equation Systems with Auto-regressive Residuals," (with G. C.Chow), Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 1973, intro
  2. "A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Models," International Economic Review, 1973, intro
1974
  1. "On the Solution of Optimal Control Problems as Maximization Problems," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 1974, intro
  2. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study," (with H. H. Kelejian), Econometrica, 1974, intro
  3. "An Evaluation of A Short-Run Forecasting Model," International Economic Review, 1974, intro
  4. "On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 1974, intro
  5. A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume I: The Theoretical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1974, intro
1976
  1. A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume II: The Empirical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1976, intro
1977
  1. "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator," Econometrica, 1977, intro
1978
  1. "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Journal of Political Economy, 1978, intro
  2. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1978, intro
  3. "The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance," International Economic Review, 1978, intro
  4. "Inflation and Unemployment in a Macroeconometric Model," in After The Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 19, June 1978, 164-193, intro
  5. "The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions About the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Econometrica, 1978, intro
  6. "A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1978, intro
1979
  1. "A Model of the Balance of Payments," Journal of International Economics, 1979, intro
  2. "On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies," The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1979, intro
  3. "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, 1979, intro
  4. "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," The American Economic Review, 1979, intro
  5. "On Modeling the Economic Linkages Among Countries," in R. Dornbusch and J. A. Frenkel (eds.), International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979, 209-239, intro
1980
  1. "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, 1980, intro
  2. "Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, 1980, intro
  3. "Full-Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model," (with W. R. Parke), Journal of Econometrics, 1980, intro
1981
  1. "A Multicountry Econometric Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 541R, December 4, 1979, revised April 30, 1981, intro
  2. "Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy," The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1981, intro
  3. "The Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 597, June 1981, intro
1982
  1. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1982, intro
  2. "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries," Journal of Political Economy, 1982, intro
  3. "The Effects of Misspecification on Predictive Accuracy," in G. C. Chow and P. Corsi (eds.), Evaluating the Reliability of Macro-Economic Models, John Wiley & Sons, 1982, 193-213, intro
1983
  1. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Rational Expectations Models," (with J. B. Taylor), Econometrica, 1983, intro
1984
  1. "Estimated Tradeoffs Between Unemployment and Inflation," in Price Stability and Public Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1984, 57-96, intro
  2. Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1984, intro
1985
  1. "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle," The American Economic Review, 1985, intro
  2. "Macro Simulations for PCs in the Classroom," (with K. E. Case), The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1985, intro
1986
  1. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Models," in Z. Griliches and M. D. Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Volume III, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1986, 1979-1995, intro
  2. "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further Results," (with L. Alexander), in D. A. Belsley and E. Kuh (eds.), Model Reliability, M.I.T. Press, 1986, 191-212, intro
1987
  1. "Properties of a Multicountry Econometric Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, 1987, intro
  2. "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1987, intro
1988
  1. "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1988, intro
  2. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, intro
  3. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," (with K. M. Dominguez and M. S. Shapiro), The American Economic Review, 1988, intro
  4. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," (with D. K. Andrews), Review of Economic Studies, 1988, intro
  5. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update," Political Behavior, 1988, intro
1989
  1. "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," (with R. J. Shiller), The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989, intro
  2. "The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well," Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, intro
1990
  1. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," (with R. J. Shiller), The American Economic Review, 1990, intro
  2. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," (with J. B. Taylor), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1990, intro
  3. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1988 Update," November 1990, intro
1991
  1. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," (with K. M. Dominguez), The American Economic Review, 1991, intro
  2. "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models," (with L. Alexander), in Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models, Oxford University Press, 1991, 168-197, intro
1992
  1. "Estimation of Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints," (with D. K. Andrews), Journal of Econometrics, 1992, intro
  2. "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics," in Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, eds., The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992, 133-147, intro
1993
  1. "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1993, intro
  2. "Testing Macroeconometric Models," The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1993, intro
  3. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, 1993, intro
  4. "Estimating Event Probabilities in Macroeconometric Models using Stochastic Simulation," in J. Stock and M. Watson (eds.), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, The University of Chicago Press, 1993, 157-176, intro
1994
  1. "How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994, intro
  2. Testing Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1994, intro
  3. "Can A Tax Plan Save Baseball?" (with Sharon M. Oster), For The Record, December 1994/ January 1995, 9, intro
1996
  1. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Political Behavior, 1996, intro
  2. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1996, intro
  3. "Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," (with E.P. Howrey), Journal of Monetary Economics, 1996, intro
  4. "Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1996, intro
  5. "Computational Methods for Macroeconometric Models," in H.M. Amman, D.A. Kendrick, and J. Rust (eds.), Handbook of Computational Economics, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1996, 143-169, intro
1997
  1. "Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24," (with D. J. Macunovich), February 1997, unpublished, intro
1998
  1. "Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU," National Institute Economic Review, 1998, intro
  2. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1996 Update," November 6, 1998, unpublished, intro
1999
  1. "Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, 1999, intro
  2. "A Fiscal Policy Rule for Stabilization," February 1999, unpublished, intro
  3. "Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations," May 1999, unpublished, intro
  4. "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?" The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1999, intro
  5. "What Can Macroeconometric Models Say About Asia-Type Crises?" May 1999, for presentation at the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 23-27, 1999, unpublished, intro
2000
  1. "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2000, intro
  2. "Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy," Business Economics, 2000, intro
2001
  1. "Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules," FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 2001, intro
2002
  1. Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, 2002, Stanford University Press, (first edition), intro
  2. "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3, 2002, intro
  3. "Events that Shook the Market," Journal of Business, 2002, intro
  4. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update," November 1, 2002, unpublished, intro
2003
  1. "Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, intro
  2. "Risk Aversion and Stock Prices," February 2003, unpublished, intro
  3. "The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford," Eastern Economic Journal, 2003, intro
  4. "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1, 2003, intro
  5. "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, 2003, intro
2004
  1. "Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s," Business Economics, 2004, intro
  2. Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works, Harvard University Press, 2004. intro
2005
  1. "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," June 2005, unpublished, intro
  2. "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, intro
  3. "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19, 2005, intro
2006
  1. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update," November 1, 2006, unpublished, intro
2007
  1. "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," (with John F. Oster), Journal of Sports Economics, 2007, intro
  2. "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," Experimental Aging Research, 2007, intro
  3. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?" The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12, 2007, intro
  4. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 1, 2007-8, 2007, intro
2008
  1. "Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later," (with Danielle Catambay), Nine, 2008, intro
  2. "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4: Iss. 1, Article 1, 2008, intro
  3. "Testing Price Equations," European Economic Review, 2008, intro
2009
  1. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, 2009, intro
  2. "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Journal of Politics, 2009, intro
2010
  1. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Business Economics, 2010, intro
  2. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Contemporary Economic Policy, 2010, intro
  3. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update," November 11, 2010, unpublished, intro
2011
  1. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," NBER, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108, 2011, intro
2012
  1. Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition, 2012, Stanford University Press, intro
  2. "What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem," Contemporary Economic Policy, 2012, intro
  3. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Journal of Forecasting, 2012, intro
  4. "Has Macro Progressed?" Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, intro
2014
  1. "Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?" Business Economics, 2014, intro
  2. "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?" Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 8, 2014-27, 2014. intro
  3. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2014 Update," November 11, 2014, unpublished, intro
2015
  1. "Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 15, Issue 1, 445-466, 2015. intro
2016
  1. "A Mini Version of the US Model," July 2016, unpublished, intro
2017
  1. "The Optimal Distribution of Income Revisited," August 2017, unpublished, intro
  2. "Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008--2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2017, intro
  3. "Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving," International Economics, 2017, intro
2018
  1. "Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events," (with Edward H. Kaplan), The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018, intro
  2. "Explaining the Slow U.S. Recovery: 2010-2017," Business Economics, 2018, intro
  3. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2018 Update," November 14, 2018, unpublished, intro
2019
  1. "Estimated Costs of Contact in College and High School Male Sports," (with Christopher Champa), Journal of Sports Economics, 2019, intro
  2. "Information Content of DSGE Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, 2019, intro
  3. "Estimated Costs of Injuries in College and High School Female Sports," (with Christopher Champa), July 2019, in progress. intro
  4. "U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2019," September 2021, in progress. intro
2020
  1. "Some Important Macro Points," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020, intro
  2. "Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE Models: Comment," Journal of Macroeconomics, 2020, intro
  3. "Trade Models and Macroeconomics," Economic Modeling, 2021, intro
  4. "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," January 2022, in progress, intro
2021
  1. "Are Stock Returns and Output Growth Higher Under Democrats?" September 2021, in progress, intro
  2. "Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting: A Comment on Pastor and Veronesi (2020)" July 2021, in progress, intro
  3. "What Do Price Equations Say About Future Inflation?" Business Economics, 2021, intro
2022
  1. "A Note on the Fed's Power to Lower Inflation," Business Economics, 2022, intro
  2. "Why Have Interest Rates Been Low?" July 2022, in progress. intro
  3. "A Note on Estimating Sports Injuries at Ivy League Universities," July 2022, in progress. intro
  4. "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2022 Update," November 23, 2022, unpublished, intro