Ray C. Fair: Research by Date
1969
- The Short-Run Demand for Workers and Hours, North-Holland
Publishing Co., 1969,
intro
1970
- "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged
Endogenous Variables
and First Order Serially Correlated Errors,"
Econometrica, 1970,
intro
- "Aggregate Price Changes and Price Expectations,"
Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis Review, 1970,
intro
1971
- "Sales Expectations and Short-Run Production Decisions,"
Southern Economic
Journal, 1971,
intro
- "Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money
Illusion," The Review of
Economics and Statistics, 1971,
intro,
- "The Determination of Yield Differentials Between Debt
Instruments of the Same
Maturity," (with B. G. Malkiel), Journal of Money, Credit
and Banking,
1971,
intro
- "The Optimal Distribution of Income," The Quarterly
Journal of Economics,
1971,
intro
- A Short-Run Forecasting Model of the United States
Economy, D. C. Heath and Co., 1971,
intro
1972
- "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium,"
(with D. M. Jaffee), Econometrica,
1972,
intro
- "Disequilibrium in Housing Models," Journal of
Finance, 1972,
intro
- "The Implications of the Proposals of the Hunt Commission for
the Mortgage and
Housing Markets: An Empirical Study," (with D. M. Jaffee), in
Policies for A More
Competitive Financial System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston,
Conference Series No.
8, June 1972, 99-148,
intro
- "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with
Auto-regressive Errors by
Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and
Statistics, 1972,
intro
1973
- "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Equation Systems with
Auto-regressive
Residuals," (with G. C.Chow), Annals of Economic and Social
Measurement,
1973,
intro
- "A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic
Models," International
Economic Review, 1973,
intro
1974
- "On the Solution of Optimal Control Problems as Maximization
Problems," Annals
of Economic and Social Measurement, 1974,
intro
- "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A
Further Study," (with
H. H. Kelejian), Econometrica, 1974,
intro
- "An Evaluation of A Short-Run Forecasting Model,"
International Economic
Review, 1974,
intro
- "On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models,"
Annals of Economic and
Social Measurement, 1974,
intro
- A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume I: The Theoretical
Model, Ballinger
Publishing Co., 1974,
intro
1976
- A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume II: The Empirical
Model, Ballinger
Publishing Co., 1976,
intro
1977
- "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator,"
Econometrica,
1977,
intro
1978
- "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Journal of
Political Economy,
1978,
intro
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President,"
The Review of
Economics and Statistics, 1978,
intro
- "The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic
Performance," International
Economic Review, 1978,
intro
- "Inflation and Unemployment in a Macroeconometric Model,"
in After The
Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High
Unemployment, Federal Reserve
Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 19, June 1978, 164-193,
intro
- "The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions About
the Behavior of the
Federal Reserve," Econometrica, 1978,
intro
- "A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with
Rational Expectations,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1978,
intro
1979
- "A Model of the Balance of Payments," Journal of
International Economics,
1979,
intro
- "On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies," The
American Economic
Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1979,
intro
- "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric
Models," Journal of
Political Economy, 1979,
intro
- "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational
Expectations in the Bond
and Stock Markets," The American Economic Review,
1979,
intro
- "On Modeling the Economic Linkages Among Countries," in
R. Dornbusch and J. A.
Frenkel (eds.), International Economic Policy: Theory and
Evidence, The Johns
Hopkins University Press, 1979, 209-239,
intro
1980
- "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric
Models," International
Economic Review, 1980,
intro
- "Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear
Models," Econometrica,
1980,
intro
- "Full-Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric
Model," (with W.
R. Parke), Journal of Econometrics, 1980,
intro
1981
- "A Multicountry Econometric Model," Cowles Foundation
Discussion Paper No.
541R, December 4, 1979, revised April 30, 1981,
intro
- "Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary
Policy on the 1980
Economy," The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1981,
intro
- "The Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares," Cowles
Foundation Discussion
Paper No. 597, June 1981,
intro
1982
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980
Results," The
Review of Economics and Statistics, 1982,
intro
- "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate
Linkages Among
Countries," Journal of Political Economy, 1982,
intro
- "The Effects of Misspecification on Predictive Accuracy,"
in G. C. Chow and P.
Corsi (eds.), Evaluating the Reliability of Macro-Economic
Models, John Wiley & Sons, 1982, 193-213,
intro
1983
- "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic
Rational Expectations
Models," (with J. B. Taylor), Econometrica, 1983,
intro
1984
- "Estimated Tradeoffs Between Unemployment and Inflation,"
in Price
Stability and Public Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas
City, 1984, 57-96,
intro
- Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric
Models, Harvard
University Press, 1984,
intro
1985
- "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle," The American
Economic Review,
1985,
intro
- "Macro Simulations for PCs in the Classroom," (with K. E.
Case), The
American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1985,
intro
1986
- "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Models," in Z.
Griliches and M. D.
Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Volume III,
North-Holland
Publishing Co., 1986, 1979-1995,
intro
- "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further
Results," (with L.
Alexander), in D. A. Belsley and E. Kuh (eds.), Model
Reliability, M.I.T. Press,
1986, 191-212,
intro
1987
- "Properties of a Multicountry Econometric Model,"
Journal of Policy
Modeling, 1987,
intro
- "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," The
Review of Economics
and Statistics, 1987,
intro
1988
- "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States,"
The Quarterly
Journal of Economics, 1988,
intro
- "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a
Macroeconometric Model," Journal
of Monetary Economics, 1988,
intro
- "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," (with
K. M. Dominguez and
M. S. Shapiro), The American Economic Review,
1988,
intro
- "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural
Change," (with D.
K. Andrews), Review of Economic Studies, 1988,
intro
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984
Update," Political
Behavior, 1988,
intro
1989
- "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," (with
R. J. Shiller), The
Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989,
intro
- "The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well,"
Journal of Monetary
Economics, 1989,
intro
1990
- "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric
Models," (with R. J.
Shiller), The American Economic Review, 1990,
intro
- "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of
Models with Rational
Expectations," (with J. B. Taylor), Journal of Applied
Econometrics,
1990,
intro
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1988
Update," November
1990,
intro
1991
- "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on
Macroeconomic Equations,"
(with K. M. Dominguez), The American Economic Review,
1991,
intro
- "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models," (with L.
Alexander), in
Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Comparative Performance of U.S.
Econometric Models,
Oxford University Press, 1991, 168-197,
intro
1992
- "Estimation of Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point
Constraints," (with
D. K. Andrews), Journal of Econometrics, 1992,
intro
- "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories,
and New Keynesian
Economics," in Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel,
eds., The Business
Cycle: Theories and Evidence, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992,
133-147,
intro
1993
- "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior,"
The Review of
Economics and Statistics, 1993,
intro
- "Testing Macroeconometric Models," The American
Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May
1993,
intro
- "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in
Macroeconometric Models," Oxford
Economic Papers, 1993,
intro
- "Estimating Event Probabilities in Macroeconometric Models
using Stochastic
Simulation," in J. Stock and M. Watson (eds.), Business
Cycles, Indicators, and
Forecasting, The University of Chicago Press, 1993, 157-176,
intro
1994
- "How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?" The Review of
Economics and Statistics,
1994,
intro
- Testing Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press,
1994,
intro
- "Can A Tax Plan Save Baseball?" (with Sharon M. Oster),
For The Record, December 1994/ January 1995, 9,
intro
1996
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992
Update," Political
Behavior, 1996,
intro
- "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," The
Journal of
Economic
Perspectives, 1996,
intro
- "Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," (with
E.P. Howrey), Journal
of Monetary Economics, 1996,
intro
- "Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric
Models," Journal
of Applied Econometrics, 1996,
intro
- "Computational Methods for Macroeconometric Models," in
H.M. Amman, D.A.
Kendrick, and J. Rust (eds.), Handbook of Computational
Economics, North-Holland
Publishing Co., 1996, 143-169,
intro
1997
- "Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women
20-24," (with D. J.
Macunovich), February 1997, unpublished,
intro
1998
- "Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU,"
National Institute Economic Review, 1998,
intro
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President:
1996 Update," November 6, 1998,
unpublished,
intro
1999
- "Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced
in the 1980s by Macro Policies," Journal of Macroeconomics,
1999,
intro
- "A Fiscal Policy Rule for Stabilization,"
February 1999,
unpublished,
intro
- "Evaluating the Information Content and
Money Making Ability
of Forecasts from
Exchange Rate Equations," May 1999, unpublished,
intro
- "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?"
The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1999,
intro
- "What Can Macroeconometric Models Say About Asia-Type
Crises?" May 1999,
for presentation at the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic
Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 23-27, 1999, unpublished,
intro
2000
- "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2000,
intro
- "Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the
Economy," Business Economics, 2000,
intro
2001
- "Actual Federal Reserve Policy
Behavior and Interest Rate Rules,"
FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 2001,
intro
2002
- Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things,
2002, Stanford University Press, (first edition),
intro
- "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks,"
Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3, 2002,
intro
- "Events that Shook the Market,"
Journal of Business, 2002,
intro
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President:
2000 Update," November 1, 2002,
unpublished,
intro
2003
- "Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
2003,
intro
- "Risk Aversion and Stock Prices,"
February 2003, unpublished,
intro
- "The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard,
Oxford,"
Eastern Economic Journal, 2003,
intro
- "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1, 2003,
intro
- "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models
with Rational Expectations,"
Computational Economics, 2003,
intro
2004
- "Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s,"
Business Economics, 2004,
intro
- Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works,
Harvard University Press, 2004.
intro
2005
- "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics,"
June 2005, unpublished,
intro
- "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005,
intro
- "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy,"
Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19, 2005,
intro
2006
- "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President:
2004 Update," November 1, 2006,
unpublished,
intro
2007
- "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency,"
(with John F. Oster),
Journal of Sports Economics, 2007,
intro
- "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess,"
Experimental Aging Research, 2007,
intro
- "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was
Greenspan the Best?"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7:
Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12, 2007,
intro
- "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric
Model,"
Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 1, 2007-8,
2007,
intro
2008
- "Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later,"
(with Danielle Catambay),
Nine, 2008,
intro
- "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball,"
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4: Iss. 1,
Article 1, 2008,
intro
- "Testing Price Equations,"
European Economic Review, 2008,
intro
2009
- "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations,"
American Journal of Political Science, 2009,
intro
- "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of
Elections,"
Journal of Politics, 2009,
intro
2010
- "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan
Appreciation,"
Business Economics, 2010,
intro
- "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus
Bill,"
Contemporary Economic Policy, 2010,
intro
- "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations:
November 2010 Update," November 11, 2010,
unpublished,
intro
2011
- "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of
Large Future Federal Government Deficits,"
NBER, Tax Policy and the
Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108, 2011,
intro
2012
- Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition,
2012, Stanford University Press,
intro
- "What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit
Problem,"
Contemporary Economic Policy, 2012,
intro
- "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability,"
Journal of Forecasting, 2012,
intro
- "Has Macro Progressed?"
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012,
intro
2014
- "Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?"
Business Economics, 2014,
intro
- "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?"
Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 8, 2014-27,
2014.
intro
- "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations:
November 2014 Update," November 11, 2014, unpublished,
intro
2015
- "Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 15, Issue 1, 445-466, 2015.
intro
2016
- "A Mini Version of the US Model,"
July 2016, unpublished,
intro
2017
- "The Optimal Distribution of Income Revisited,"
August 2017, unpublished,
intro
- "Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity:
2008--2013,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2017,
intro
- "Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving,"
International Economics, 2017,
intro
2018
- "Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events,"
(with Edward H. Kaplan), The Review
of Economics and Statistics, 2018,
intro
- "Explaining the Slow U.S. Recovery: 2010-2017,"
Business Economics, 2018,
intro
- "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations:
November 2018 Update," November 14, 2018, unpublished,
intro
2019
- "Estimated Costs of Contact in College and High School Male
Sports,"
(with Christopher Champa), Journal of Sports Economics, 2019,
intro
- "Information Content of DSGE
Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, 2019,
intro
- "U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2019," September 2021, in progress.
intro
2020
- "Some Important Macro Points,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020,
intro
- "Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE Models:
Comment,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2020,
intro
- "Trade Models and Macroeconomics," Economic Modeling, 2021,
intro
- "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions,"
January 2022, in progress,
intro
2021
- "Are Stock Returns and Output Growth Higher Under Democrats?"
September 2021, in progress,
intro
- "Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion
Voting: A Comment on
Pastor and Veronesi (2020)"
July 2021, in progress,
intro
- "What Do Price Equations Say About Future Inflation?"
Business Economics, 2021,
intro
2022
- "A Note on the Fed's Power to Lower Inflation,"
Business Economics, 2022,
intro
- "Why Have Interest Rates Been Low?"
July 2022, in progress.
intro
- "Estimated Costs of Injuries in College and High School Female
Sports,"
(with Christopher Champa),
Sports Economic Review, 2022,
intro
- "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations:
November 2022 Update," November 23, 2022, unpublished,
intro
2024
- "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women," in progress,
March 2024,
intro
- "The Cost of Contact in Ivy League Sports,"
March 2024, in progress.
intro
- "Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles: Comment,"
June 2024, in progress,
intro
- "Inflation Expectations, Price Equations, and Fed Effects,"
August 2024, in progress,
intro