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"Estimating Event Probabilities in Macroeconometric Models using
Stochastic Simulation," in J. Stock and M. Watson (eds.),
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, The University of
Chicago Press, 1993, 157-176.
This paper discusses how stochastic simulation can be used to estimate
event probabilities in econometric models. The US model is used for
The material in Chapter 7, Section 7.9, and Chapter 8, Section 8.8, in
1994#2 is based on this paper.