Testing Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1994.
Book: pfd files: whole book (1,720KB), toc,preface,bib,index , chapter 1 , chapter 2 , chapter 3 , chapter 4 , chapter 5 , chapter 6 , chapter 7 , chapter 8 , chapter 9 , chapter 10 , chapter 11 , chapter 12 , chapter 13 , appendix A , appendix B .
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This book brought together my macroeconomic research and related econometric research between 1985 and 1994. It is a sequel to 1984#1. All the empirical work was updated for the book. I indicated in a footnote at the beginning of each relevant section of the book the previous paper or papers upon which the material in the section was based. The following gives for each relevant section the links to the papers.
Section 1.1: Background. 1993#2
Section 1.2: The Cowles Commission Approach.1992#2
Section 3.2.3: Variable Construction,
Comparisons to the Fay-Medoff Estimates. 1985#1
Section 4.3: Estimation of
Equations with Rational Expectations. 1993#3
Section 4.5: Chi-Square Tests, Leads. 1993#3
Section 4.7: Tests of Age Distribution
Effects. 1991#1
Section 5.3: Money Demand Equations. 1987#2,
Section 5.4: The Main Firm Sector Equations,
Equation 10. 1993#1
Section 6.7: Equation 6: M1: Money. 1987#2
Section 7.4: Median Unbiased Estimates. 1996#4
Section 7.5: Examining the Accuracy of
Asymptotic Distributions. 1996#4
Section 7.7: Comparing Predictive Accuracy. 1980#1
Section 7.8: Comparing Information in Forecasts.
1990#1
Section 7.9: Estimating Event Probabilities. 1993#4
Section 7.10: Full Information Estimation and
Solution of Rational Expectations Models. 1990#2
Section 8.3: MU Estimates of the US Model. 1996#4
Section 8.4: Asymptotic Distribution Accuracy.
1996#4
Section 8.7: Comparing Information in Forecasts.
1990#1
Section 8.8: Estimating Event Probabilities.1993#4
Section 10.3: Sources of Economic Fluctuations.
1988#1
Section 10.4: Optimal Choice of Monetary-Policy
Instruments. 1988#2
Section 11.4: Sources of Economic Fluctuations
in the US Model. 1988#1
Section 11.5: Optimal Choice of Monetary-Policy
Instruments in the US Model. 1988#2
Section 11.6: Sensitivity of Multipliers to the
Rational Expectations Assumption in the US Model. 1993#3
All the methods used in this book are programmed into the Fair-Parke program.