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"Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions,"
October 2020, in progress.
Nine U.S. recessions and three expansions are analyzed in this paper
using a structural macroeconometric model. With two exceptions and
one partial exception, the episodes are predicted well by the model,
including the 2008-2009 recession,
conditional on the actual values of the exogenous variables.
The main exogenous variables are stock prices, housing prices,
import prices, exports, and exogenous government policy variables.
Monetary policy is endogenous. Fluctuations in stock and housing
prices (housing prices after 1995) are important drivers of output
fluctuations---large wealth effects on household expenditures.