Ray C. Fair: Research by Subject

I. Econometric Techniques

A. For Simultaneous Equations Models

• "The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, 1970, intro
• "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Auto-regressive Errors by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1972, intro
• "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Equation Systems with Auto-regressive Residuals," (with G. C.Chow), Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 1973, intro
• "A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Models," International Economic Review, 1973, intro
• "On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 1974, intro
• "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, 1979, intro
• "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, 1980, intro
• "Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, 1980, intro
• "Full-Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model," (with W. R. Parke), Journal of Econometrics, 1980, intro
• "The Effects of Misspecification on Predictive Accuracy," in G. C. Chow and P. Corsi (eds.), Evaluating the Reliability of Macro-Economic Models, John Wiley & Sons, 1982, 193-213, intro
• "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Rational Expectations Models," (with J. B. Taylor), Econometrica, 1983, intro
• "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Models," in Z. Griliches and M. D. Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Volume III, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1986, 1979-1995, intro
• "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further Results," (with L. Alexander), in D. A. Belsley and E. Kuh (eds.), Model Reliability, M.I.T. Press, 1986, 191-212, intro
• "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," (with D. K. Andrews), Review of Economic Studies, 1988, intro
• "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," (with R. J. Shiller), The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1989, intro
• "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," (with R. J. Shiller), The American Economic Review, 1990, intro
• "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," (with J. B. Taylor), Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1990, intro
• "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models," (with L. Alexander), in Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models, Oxford University Press, 1991, 168-197, intro
• "Estimation of Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints," (with D. K. Andrews), Journal of Econometrics, 1992, intro
• "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, 1993, intro
• "Estimating Event Probabilities in Macroeconometric Models using Stochastic Simulation," in J. Stock and M. Watson (eds.), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, The University of Chicago Press, 1993, 157-176, intro
• "Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1996, intro
• "Computational Methods for Macroeconometric Models," in H.M. Amman, D.A. Kendrick, and J. Rust (eds.), Handbook of Computational Economics, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1996, 143-169, intro
• "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1, 2000, intro

B. For Disequilibrium Models

• "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," (with D. M. Jaffee), Econometrica, 1972, intro
• "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study," (with H. H. Kelejian), Econometrica, 1974, intro

C. For the Tobit Model

• "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator," Econometrica, 1977, intro

II. Macroeconomics

A. Research Using Disaggregate Data

• The Short-Run Demand for Workers and Hours, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1969, intro
• "Sales Expectations and Short-Run Production Decisions," Southern Economic Journal, 1971, intro
• "The Production Smoothing Model is Alive and Well," Journal of Monetary Economics, 1989, intro
• "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1993, intro

B. Research Related to Forecasting Model

• "Aggregate Price Changes and Price Expectations," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 1970, intro
• A Short-Run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy, D. C. Heath and Co., 1971, intro
• "Disequilibrium in Housing Models," Journal of Finance, 1972, intro
• "An Evaluation of A Short-Run Forecasting Model," International Economic Review, 1974, intro

C. Research Related to US and MC Models

• A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume I: The Theoretical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1974, intro
• A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume II: The Empirical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1976, intro
• "Inflation and Unemployment in a Macroeconometric Model," in After The Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 19, June 1978, 164-193, intro
• "The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions About the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Econometrica, 1978, intro
• "A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1978, intro
• "A Model of the Balance of Payments," Journal of International Economics, 1979, intro
• "On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies," The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1979, intro
• "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," The American Economic Review, 1979, intro
• "On Modeling the Economic Linkages Among Countries," in R. Dornbusch and J. A. Frenkel (eds.), International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979, 209-239, intro
• "A Multicountry Econometric Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 541R, December 4, 1979, revised April 30, 1981. intro
• "Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy," The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1981, intro
• "The Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 597, June 1981, intro
• "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries," Journal of Political Economy, 1982, intro
• "Estimated Tradeoffs Between Unemployment and Inflation," in Price Stability and Public Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1984, 57-96, intro
• Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1984, intro
• "Properties of a Multicountry Econometric Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, 1987, intro
• "International Evidence on the Demand for Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1987, intro
• "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1988, intro
• "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988, intro
• "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," (with K. M. Dominguez), The American Economic Review, 1991, intro
• "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics," in Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, eds., The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992, 133-147, intro
• "Testing Macroeconometric Models," The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1993, intro
• Testing Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1994, intro
• "Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," (with E.P. Howrey), Journal of Monetary Economics, 1996, intro
• "Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU," National Institute Economic Review, 1998, intro
• "Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, 1999, intro
• "A Fiscal Policy Rule for Stabilization," February 1999, unpublished, intro
• "Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations," May 1999, unpublished, intro
• "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics,?" The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1999, intro
• "What Can Macroeconometric Models Say About Asia-Type Crises?" May 1999, for presentation at the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 23-27, 1999, unpublished, intro
• "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2000, intro
• "Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy," Business Economics, 2000, intro
• "Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules," FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 2001, intro
• "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks" Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3, 2002, intro
• "Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s," Business Economics, 2004, intro
• Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works, Harvard University Press, 2004. intro
• "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," June 2005, unpublished, intro
• "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, intro
• "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19, 2005, intro
• "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 1, 2007-8, 2007, intro
• "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?" The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12, 2007, intro
• "Testing Price Equations," European Economic Review, 2008, intro
• "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Business Economics, 2010, intro
• "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Contemporary Economic Policy, 2010, intro
• "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," NBER, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108, 2011,. intro
• "What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem," Contemporary Economic Policy, 2012, intro
• "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Journal of Forecasting, 2012, intro
• "Has Macro Progressed?" Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, intro
• "Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?" Business Economics, 2014, intro
• "How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?" Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 8, 2014-27, 2014, intro
• "Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 15, Issue 1, 445-466, 2015, intro
• "A Mini Version of the US Model," July 2016, unpublished, intro
• "Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008--2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2017, intro
• "Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving," International Economics, 2017, intro
• "Explaining the Slow U.S. Recovery: 2010--2017," Business Economics, 2018, intro
• "Information Content of DSGE Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, 2019, intro
• "U.S. Infrastructure: 1929-2019," September 2021, in progress. intro
• "Some Important Macro Points," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020, intro
• "Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE Models: Comment," Journal of Macroeconomics, 2020, intro
• "Trade Models and Macroeconomics, " Economic Modeling, 2021, intro
• "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," January 2022, in progress. intro
• "What Do Price Equations Say About Future Inflation?" Business Economics, 2021, intro
• "A Note on the Fed's Power to Lower Inflation," Business Economics, 2022, intro
• "Why Have Interest Rates Been Low?" July 2022, in progress. intro
• "Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles: Comment," June 2024, in progress, intro
• "Inflation Expectations, Price Equations, and Fed Effects," Business Economics, 2024, intro

D. Labor Force Participation

• "Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money Illusion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1971, intro
• "Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24," (with D. J. Macunovich), February 1997, unpublished, intro

E. Miscellaneous

• "The Determination of Yield Differentials Between Debt Instruments of the Same Maturity," (with B. G. Malkiel), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1971, intro
• "The Implications of the Proposals of the Hunt Commission for the Mortgage and Housing Markets: An Empirical Study," (with D. M. Jaffee), in Policies for A More Competitive Financial System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 8, June 1972, 99-148, intro
• "Macro Simulations for PCs in the Classroom," (with K. E. Case), The American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, May 1985, intro
• "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," (with K. M. Dominguez and M. S. Shapiro), The American Economic Review, 1988, intro

III. Optimal Control

• "On the Solution of Optimal Control Problems as Maximization Problems," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, 1974, intro
• "The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance," International Economic Review, 1978, intro
• "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, 2003, intro

IV. Voting Behavior

• "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1978, intro
• "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1982, intro
• "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update," Political Behavior, 1988, intro,
• "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1988 Update," November 1990, unpublished, intro
• "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Political Behavior, 1996, intro
• "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1996, intro
• "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1996 Update," November 6, 1998, unpublished, intro
• Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, 2002, Stanford University Press, (first edition), intro
• "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update," November 1, 2002, unpublished, intro
• "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update," November 1, 2006, unpublished, intro
• "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, 2009, intro
• "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Journal of Politics, 2009, intro
• "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update," November 11, 2010, unpublished, intro
• Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition, 2012, Stanford University Press, intro
• "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2014 Update," November 11, 2014, unpublished, intro
• "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2014 Update," November 14, 2018, unpublished, intro
• "Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting: A Comment on Pastor and Veronesi (2020)" July 2021, in progress, intro
• "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2022 Update," November 23, 2022, unpublished, intro

V. Finance

• "Events that Shook the Market," Journal of Business, 2002, intro
• "Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, intro
• "Risk Aversion and Stock Prices," February 2003, unpublished, intro
• "Are Stock Returns and Output Growth Higher Under Democrats?" September 2021, in progress, intro

VI. Applied Micro

• "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Journal of Political Economy, 1978, intro,

VII. Optimal Income Taxation

• "The Optimal Distribution of Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1971, intro
• "The Optimal Distribution of Income Revisited," August 2017, unpublished, intro

VIII. Aging

• "How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?" The Review of Economics and Statistics, 1994, intro
• "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," Experimental Aging Research, 2007, intro
• "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4: Iss. 1, Article 1, 2008, intro
• "Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events," (with Edward H. Kaplan), The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018, intro
• "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women," November 2024, in progress. intro

IX. Miscellaneous

• "Can A Tax Plan Save Baseball?" (with Sharon M. Oster), For The Record, December 1994/ January 1995, 9, intro
• "The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford," Eastern Economic Journal, 2003, intro
• "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," (with John F. Oster), Journal of Sports Economics, 2007, intro
• "Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later," (with Danielle Catambay), Nine, 2008, intro
• "Estimated Costs of Contact in College and High School Male Sports," (with Christopher Champa), Journal of Sports Economics, 2019, intro
• "Estimated Costs of Injuries in College and High School Female Sports," (with Christopher Champa), Sports Economic Review, 2022, intro
• "The Cost of Contact in Ivy League Sports," March 2024, in progress. intro