| Aging in Sports and Chess |
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This part of the site allows one to compute his or her predicted minimum times by age in running and swimming events, given his or her best previous time. It does the same for the high jump regarding height and for chess regarding chess rating. It uses the results in Fair (2007), "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess" and updated results in Fair and Kaplan (2018), "Estimating Aging Effectrs in Running Events,". One should at least skim these papers before computing any predictions to see what assumptions are being made and how the age factors were estimated. Compute predicted minimum times (maximum heights for the high jump, maximum ratings for chess):
100, 200, or 400 meter track Compute age graded scores:
Men: 5km through Marathon (Using 2018 updated age
factors) Related Papers: How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1994, 103-118 Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things (Chapter 8) Speed is not that fleeting, Geezerjock, October 2004. Estimated Age Effects in Baseball, October 2005. Ray Fair's 20K and Marathon times:
John Courtmanche's 20K times:
Barbara Pearce's 20K times:
Barbara Pearce's 5K times:
Leah Vogel's 20K times:
Amby Burfoot's Manchester Road Race times:
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