Ray C. Fair: Macroeconomics 2000-2025

Macroeconomic Modeling: The Cowles Commission Approach, 2024, The MIT Press pdf file
Macroeconometric Modeling: 2018, macro reference for the site, pdf file
"U.S. Infrastructure: 1929--2023," February 2025, in progress, intro
"Inflation Expectations, Price Equations, and Fed Effects," Business Economics, 2024, intro
"Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles: Comment," June 2024, in progress, intro
"Why Have Interest Rates Been Low?" July 2022, in progress, intro
"A Note on the Fed's Power to Lower Inflation", Business Economics, 2022, intro
"What Do Price Equations Say About Future Inflation?" Business Economics, 2021, intro
"Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," January 2022, in progress, intro
"Trade Models and Macroeconomics," Economic Modeling, 2021, intro
"Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE Models: Comment," Journal of Macroeconomics, 2020, intro
"Some Important Macro Points," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020, intro
"Information Content of DSGE Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, 2019, intro
"Explaining the Slow U.S. Recovery: 2010--2017," Business Economics, 2018, intro
"Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving," International Economics, 2017, intro
"Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008--2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2017, intro
"A Mini Version of the US Model," July 2016, unpublished, intro
"Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 15, Issue 1, 445-466, 2015, intro
"How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?" Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 8, 2014-27, 2014, intro
"Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?" Business Economics, 2014, intro
"Has Macro Progressed?" Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, intro
"Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Journal of Forecasting, 2012, intro
"What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem," Contemporary Economic Policy, 2012, intro
"Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," 2011, NBER, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108, intro
"Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Contemporary Economic Policy, 2010, intro
"Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Business Economics, 2010, intro
"Testing Price Equations," European Economic Review, 2008, intro
"Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 1, 2007-8, 2007, intro
"A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?" The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12, 2007, intro
"Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19, 2005, intro
"Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, intro
"Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," June 2005, unpublished, intro
"Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works," Harvard University Press, 2004, intro
"Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s," Business Economics, 2004, intro
"Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, 2003, intro
"Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1, 2003, intro
"On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3, 2002,intro
"Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules," FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 2001, intro
"Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy," Business Economics, 2000, intro
"Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2000, intro