Presidential Vote Equation---2000 Update
The following paper presents the 2000 update of the vote equation. No specification changes were made for this update from the previous update in November 1998---the "1996 update"---which itself was unchanged from the update before that. The equation was simply reestimated using the latest data. This paper also contains the first prediction for 2004 using the 2000 update.
November 1, 2002: 2000 update and prediction for 2004

Compute your own prediction for 2004 using the 2000 update

Predictions for 2004 using 2000 update:
January 30, 2003, prediction
April 25, 2003, prediction
July 31, 2003, prediction
October 31, 2003, prediction
February 5, 2004, prediction
April 29, 2004, prediction
July 31, 2004, prediction
October 29, 2004, prediction

Earlier update papers:
1982
1988
1990
1996
1998

Original paper:
1978

Non technical discussion:
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things (Chapters 1, 3, and 4)

Old site material for the 1996 election

Old site material for the 2000 election

Note to the Media: July 31, 2004

Post-mortem--November 3, 2004

A Vote Equation and the 2004 Election--November 22, 2004

Other work:
Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Presidential Elections