The following paper presents the 2000 update of the vote
equation.
No specification changes were made for this update from the previous
update in November 1998---the "1996 update"---which itself was unchanged
from the update before that.
The equation was simply reestimated using the latest data.
This paper also contains the first prediction for 2004 using the
2000 update.
November 1, 2002: 2000 update and
prediction for 2004
Compute your own prediction for 2004 using the
2000 update
Predictions for 2004 using 2000 update:
January 30, 2003, prediction
April 25, 2003, prediction
July 31, 2003, prediction
October 31, 2003, prediction
February 5, 2004, prediction
April 29, 2004, prediction
July 31, 2004, prediction
October 29, 2004, prediction
Earlier update papers:
1982
1988
1990
1996
1998
Original paper:
1978
Non technical discussion:
Predicting Presidential Elections and
Other Things (Chapters 1, 3, and 4)
Old site material for the 1996 election
Old site material for the 2000 election
Note to the Media: July 31, 2004
Post-mortem--November 3, 2004
A Vote Equation and the 2004 Election--November 22,
2004
Other work:
Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty
of Presidential Elections
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