Description
This course has an applied econometrics focus. The topics include voting behavior, betting markets, sports, and various issues in microeconomics. The requirements are three empirical papers. The first, worth 20 percent of the grade, is an extension of an existing article, where some of the results are duplicated and then extended. A voting example is provided if a student wants to use it. The second, worth 30 percent of the grade, is more of the same but with no example provided. The third, worth 50 percent of the grade, is a more original paper within the range of topics covered in the course, where data are collected and analyzed using whatever econometric techniques are relevant. For seniors this paper can possibly be the beginning of a senior essay. The aim of the course is to get students doing original empirical research using econometric tools. It is also to prepare students to read empirical papers in economics and other social sciences.
Prerequisites
Two semesters of econometrics or statistics. Special permission from the instructor is needed if the student has had only one semester of econometrics or statistics.
Attendance
Class attendance is required, and there will be considerable class participation.
Statistical Software
Any statistical software is fine. Class time will not be taken going over software.
Readings
The following list of readings is tentative. Some papers may be added and
some subtracted, partly depending on students' interests. And not all
papers may be required reading.
Students will be asked to present some of the papers.
Also, time will be taken for students' presentations of their own papers.
All readings are online except for your econometrics text.
August 31, September 2, 7: Econometric Methodology and
Tools
- Case, Fair, and Oster, Chapter 36, "Critical
Thinking About Research."
- Fair, Ray C., Predicting Presidential
Elections and Other Things, Second Edition,
Chapters 1 and 2.
- Oster, Emily,
Here's Why It's So Impossible to Get
Reliable Diet Advice From the News, Slate.
- Data from Slate paper: Slate data.
- Your econometrics text---use this for review throughout the course.
- Correlations:
Sodas are bad
- Correlations:
Vegan is so so
- Blood Pressure:
Take pills at night
- Gary Smith on luck in baseball:
Luck in baseball
- Example of data mining, Gary Smith, Data Mining
- Fraud, Fraud
- Dilbert regression: Dilbert
- Covid-19 Random Control Trial, RCT
- Gary Smith on Bayes' rule and Simpson's paradox:
Bayes' rule and Simpson's paradox
- Correlations:
Steps are good
- Correlations:
Fast steps are even better
September 12, 14: Explaining and Predicting
Voting Behavior
- Fair, Ray C., The Economy and Voting Behavior,
February 22,2017.
- Voting site:
Voting site.
- Vote equation through 1960:
Equation.
- Pitfalls:
Pitfalls.
- Coattail:
Coattail.
- Fair, Ray C., Predicting Presidential
Elections and Other Things, Second Edition,
Chapters 3 and 4.
- Fair, Ray C., Presidential and
Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2018 Update.
- Fair, Ray C., Presidential
and Congressional Vote-Share Equations,
American Journal of Political Science, January 2009, 55-72.
(This is optional, but you may want to skim it.)
- Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model: SUR.
September 19. 21: Explaining the Voting Behavior of Members of
Congress and Student Presentations of the First Paper
First paper due Monday, September 26, before class.
September 26, 28: Political Betting Markets
- Wolfers, Justin, and Eric Zitzewitz, Prediction
Markets, Journal of
Economic Perspectives, Spring 2004, 107-126.
- Rhode, Paul W., and Koleman S. Strumpf, Historical
Presidential Betting
Markets, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 2004, 127-142.
- Snowberg, Erik, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz,
Partisan Impacts on
the Economy: Evidence from Prediction Markets and Close Elections,
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 2007, 807-829.
- Snowberg, Erik, Justin Wolfers, and Eric Zitzewitz,
Party Influence in
Congress and the Economy, November 30, 2006.
- Wolfers, Justin, and Eric Zitzewitz, The 'Standard
Error' of Event Studies: Lessons from the 2016 Election, AEA
Papers and Proceedings, 2018.
October 3, 5:
Announcement Effects on Stock and Bond Markets
- Knight, Brian, Are Policy
Platforms Capitalized into Equity Prices?
Evidence from the Bush/Gore 2000 Presidential Election, Journal
of Public Economics, 2006, 751-773.
- Shon, John J., Do Stock Returns Vary With Campaign Contributions? The
Bush versus Gore 2000 Presidential Elections, 2006.
- Fisman, Raymond, "Estimating the Value of
Political Connections,
The American Economic Review, September 2001, 1095-1102.
- Fisman, David, Ray Fisman, Julia Galef, and Rakesh Khurana,
Estimating the Value of Connections to
Vice-President Cheney,"
May 24, 2006.
- Wagner, Alexander F., Richard J. Zeckhauser, and Alexandre Ziegler,
Unequal Rewards to Firms: Stock market Responses
to the Trump Election and the 2017 Corporate Tax Reform, AER
Papers and Proceedings, 2018.
- Fair, Ray C., Shock Effects on Stock,
Bonds, and Exchange Rates,
Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 207-341.
October 10, 12: Topics in Sports Economics--1
- Fair, Ray C., and John F. Oster,
College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency,
Journal of Sports Economics, 2007, 3-18.
.
- Murray, Thomas J., Examining the Relationship
Between Scheduling and the
Outcomes of Regular Season Games in the National Football League,
Journal of Sports Economics, 2018, 696-724.
- Nardinelli, Clark, and Curtis Simon, Customer Racial
Discrimination in the Market for Memorabilia: The Case of Baseball,
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1990, 575-595.
- Bradbury, John Charles, and Joshua D. Pitts,
Full Cost-of-Attendance Scholarships and College Choice:
Evidence from NCAA Football, Journal of Sports Economics, 2018.
- Guo, Mengmeng, and Shihe Fu, Running
With a Mask? The Effect of Air Pollution on Marathon Runners' Performance,
Journal of Sports Economics, 2019. complete
copy.
- Probit,Logit,Tobit, Probit,Logit,Tobit
October 17, 24, 26: Topics in Sports Economics--2 and Student
Presentations
of the Second Paper
Second paper due Monday, October 31, before class.
October 31, November 2: Natural Experiments
- Gentzkow, Matthew, and Jesse M. Shapiro, Preschool
Television Viewing and Adolescent Test Scores Historical Evidence From
the Coleman Study, Quarterly Journal of Economics, February
2008.
- Jensen, Robert, and Emily Oster, The Power of TV:
Cable Television and Women's Status in India, Quarterly Journal
of Economics, August 2009, 1057-1094.
- Barreca, Alan I., Melanie Guldi, Jason M. Lindo, and Glen R. Waddell,
Saving Babies? Revisiting the Effect of Very Low
Birth Weight Classification, The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
2011.
November 7, 9: Grades, Wine, and Extramarital Affairs
- Hamermesh, Daniel S., and Amy Parker, Beauty in the
Classroom: Instructors' Pulchritude and Putative Pedogolical Productivity,
Economics of Education Review, 2005.
- Durden, Garey C., and Larry V. Ellis, The
Effects of Attendance on Student
Learing in Principles of Economics, The American Economic Review,
1995, 343-346.
- Ashenfelter, Orley, David Ashmore, and Roberty Lalonde,
Bordeaux
Wine Vintage Quality and the Weather, Chance, 1995, 7-14.
- Fair, Ray C., Predicting Presidential
Elections and Other Things, Second Edition,
Chapter 6.
- Fair, Ray C., A Theory of
Extramarital Affairs The Journal of Political
Economy, 1978.
November 14, 16: Minimum Wage, Minimum Driving Age
- Card, David, and Alan Krueger, Minimum Wages
and Employment: A Case
Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania,
The American Economic Review, 1994, 772-793.
- OPTIONAL: Jardim, Katerina, et al., Minimum Wage Increases, Wages,
and Low-Wage Employment: Evidence From Seattle, NBER Working Paper 23532,
May 2018.
- Clemens, Jeffrey, and Michael R. Strain, The Short-Run
Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Changes: Evidence from the
American Community Survey, November 12, 2017.
- Carpenter, Christopher, and Carlos Dobkin, The
Effect of Alcohol
Consumption on Mortality: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from the
Minimum Drinking Age, American Economic Journal: Applied Economics,
January 2009, 164-182.
Outline of third paper due Wednesday, November 16, before class.
November 28, 30: Is the Harvard Admissions Process Biased
Against Asian Americans?
- Arcidiacono, Peter, Josh Kinsler, and Tyler Ransom,
Legacy and Athlete Preferences at Harvard,
December 22, 2020.
- Arcidiacono, Peter, Josh Kinsler, and Tyler Ransom,
Asian American Discrimination in Harvard Admissions,
June 10, 2020.
- OPTIONAL: Peter Arcidiacono's report, October 16, 2017
- OPTIONAL: David Card's report, December 15, 2017
- OPTIONAL: Arcidiacono's rebuttal to Card's report
- OPTIONAL: Card's rebuttal to Arcidiacono's rebuttal
- OPTIONAL: Arcidiacono, Peter, Josh Kinsler, and Tyler Ransom,
Divergent: The Time Parh of Legacy and Athlete Admissions
at Harvard, NBER Working Paper 26315, September 2019.
December 5, 7: Student Presentations of the
Third Paper
Third paper due Wednesday, December 14, midnight.
Possible Other Readings
- Chetty, Raj, et al., The Economic Impacts of
COVID-19, September 2020.
- Goodman, Joshua, Oded Gurantz, and Jonathan Smith,
Take Two! SAT Retaking and College Enrollment Gaps, NBER Working Paper
24945, August 2018.
- Almond, Douglas, Joseph J. Doyle, Jr., Amanda E. Kowalski, and Heidi Williams,
Estimating Marginal Returns
to Medical Care: Evidence from At-risk Newborns, The Quarterly
Journal of Economics, May 2010.
- Almond et al., Reply,
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2011.
- Guthold, Regina, Gretchen A. Steverns, Leanne M. Riley, and Fiona C. Bull,
Worldwide Trends in Insufficient Physical Activity from
2001 to 2016, WHO study 2018.
- Data from Hamermesh and Parker paper: Data.
- Wiebe, Douglas J., et al, Association Between the
Experimental Kickoff Rule and Concussion Rates in Ivy League Football,
Journal of the American Medical Association, 2018.
- Chen, M. Keith, Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr., and Edward H. Kaplan,
Modeling a Presidential Prediction Market,
Management Science, 2008.
News Items and Miscellaneous