| Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update |
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Background:
The paper,
Presidential and Congressional
Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update, discusses the
November 2010 update of the vote-share equations. Forecasts for
2012 are also made.
This discussion assumes that the paper,
Presidential and Congressional
Vote-Share Equations, American Journal of Political Science,
January 2009, 55-72, has been read.
Predictions: The current and past predictions of VP and VC using the economic forecasts from the US model are:
G P Z VP VC
November 11, 2010 3.69 1.42 6 55.9 49.9
January 29, 2011 1.93 1.77 4 52.5 48.0
April 28, 2011 2.69 2.01 4 52.8 48.2
July 31, 2011 3.64 2.06 4 53.4 48.5
October 30, 2011 2.75 1.88 1 50.0 46.6
January 28, 2012 2.88 1.54 1 50.3 46.7
January 28, 2012, comment: The January 28, 2012, forecast from the
US model is not that different from the October 30, 2011, forecast.
G is now 2.88 rather than 2.75, P is now 1.54 rather than 1.88, and Z is
still 1. (The one strong growth quarter is 2012:3.)
The new
economic values lead to a predicted value of VP of 50.30, essentially the
same as the 50.0 in October. The predicted value of VC
is now 46.7 rather than 46.6 in October.
The main message from the presidential vote equation is again the same as it has been from the beginning. For a moderately growing economy, which the US model is now forecasting, the election is predicted to be close. The current US model forecast is probably somewhat more optimistic than consensus, but with slightly slower growth in 2012, the election would still be predicted to be close. If the economy suddenly starts to boom---say 5 or 6 percent growth---Obama would be predicted to win by a comfortable amount. If the economy suddenly goes into another recession---say minus 5 or 6 percent growth---the Republicans would be predicted to win by a comfortable amount. As of this writing the economy in 2012 looks like it will be ok, but not great, which means a close election---essentially too close to call. If the economy does turn out to be ok, but not great, and if the election is close, the voting equation will have done well. If instead in this case the election is not close, the equation will have made a large error. Payroll tax comment, January 28, 2012: The above economic forecast (January 28, 2012) assumes that the payroll tax cuts are extended through 2012 rather than only through the first two months of 2012, as currently legislated. If the cuts are not extended, the US model estimates that G will be smaller by 0.51 (2.37 instead of 2.88) and Z will be zero (2012:3 is no longer a strong growth quarter). P is roughly the same. These new values of G and Z lead to a predicted vote share for Obama of 49.0, down from 50.3. Not extending the payroll tax cuts is thus estimated to cost Obama 1.3 percentage points of vote share. The election is still, of course, predicted to be close. Finally, the above economic forecast did not assume that unemployment benefits would be extended through 2012, as has been proposed. If they are in fact extended, this will increase G slightly and thus Obama's predicted vote share slightly. October 30, 2011, comment: The October 30, 2011, forecast from the US model is somewhat less optimistic about future output growth than was the July 31, 2011, forecast. G is now 2.75 rather than 3.64, and Z is now 1 rather than 4. (The one good news quarter is 2012:3.) P is slightly lower at 1.88 versus 2.06 before. The new economic values lead to a predicted value of VP of 50.0, down from 53.4 in July. The predicted value of VC has fallen from 48.5 to 46.6. The message from the presidential vote equation does not, of course, change. For a moderately growing economy, which the US model is now forecasting, the election is predicted to be close. If the economy does considerably better, which the US model was forecasting earlier, Obama is predicted to win, although the election is still fairly close. If the economy goes into another recession, Obama is predicted to lose. July 31, 2011, comment: Comparing the July and April predictions, VP has increased from 52.8 to 53.4 percent. This is because G has increased by about 1 percentage point---the US model is forecasting strong growth in 2012. The NIPA data revisions that were released on July 29, 2011, now show no good new quarters so far in the Obama administration (compared to one before), but Z is still 4 because the July 31 economic forecast has four good news quarters---2011:4, 2012:1, 2012:2, 2012:3---compared to three before. The prediction of an Obama victory with 53.4 percent of the two-party vote is conditional on the assumption that there will be strong growth between now and the election. According to the July 31 forecast from the US model, by election time the economy will have been growing well for five consecutive quarters, with the unemployment rate down to 7.9 percent. The economy will have turned around, and the vote equation predicts a victory for the incumbent party. Most current economic forecasts are, however, much less optimistic than this, and with a weaker economy the message from the vote equation is different. Say the economy grows at an annual rate of only 3 percent between now and the election, where there are no good news quarters and G is 2 percent. Using G = 2.0, P = 2.06, and Z = 0, the predicted value of VP is 48.4 percent, a narrow Republican victory. The economy is thus crucial according to the vote equation. A strong rebound results in a fairly solid Obama victory; a moderate to slightly below moderate economy results in a close election with an edge for the Republicans; and a double dip recession with, say, negative growth in 2012, results in a fairly solid Republican victory. April 28, 2011, comment: Comparing the April and January economic predictions, both G and P increased slightly, with the G change the larger. This led to a slight increase in the predicted vote shares for the Democrats. The main message from January, however, has not changed. January 29, 2011, comment: The latest economic prediction has more growth in 2011 and less growth in 2012 than the previous economic prediction had. It also has two fewer good news quarters. This results in the prediction for Obama falling from 55.9 to 52.5 percent and the prediction for the House Democrats falling from 49.9 to 48.0 percent. Compute your own prediction: The following link allows you to compute your own predictions of the 2012 presidential and House elections. Compute your own predictions for 2012
Data for downloading:
Original paper:
Previous update papers:
Non technical discussions:
Web site material for previous elections:
Related work:
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