Research by Subject

Ray C. Fair: Research by Subject

I. Econometric Techniques

A. For Simultaneous Equations Models

"The Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models with Lagged Endogenous Variables and First Order Serially Correlated Errors," Econometrica, May 1970, 507-516, intro, pdf file (601 KB), pdf file (994 KB).
"Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations with Auto-regressive Errors by Instrumental Variables," The Review of Economics and Statistics, November 1972, 444-449, intro, pdf file (520 KB).
"Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Linear Equation Systems with Auto-regressive Residuals," (with G. C.Chow), Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, January 1973, 17-28, intro, pdf file (733 KB).
"A Comparison of Alternative Estimators of Macroeconomic Models," International Economic Review, June 1973, 261-277, intro, pdf file (1,035 KB).
"On the Robust Estimation of Econometric Models," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, October 1974, 667-677, intro, pdf file (673 KB).
"An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Political Economy, August 1979, 701-718, intro, pdf file (843 KB).
"Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, June 1980, 355-378, intro, pdf file (1,417 KB).
"Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, September 1980, 1381-1391, intro, pdf file (634 KB).
"Full-Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model," (with W. R. Parke), Journal of Econometrics, September 1980, 269-291, intro, pdf file (1,155 KB).
"The Effects of Misspecification on Predictive Accuracy," in G. C. Chow and P. Corsi (eds.), Evaluating the Reliability of Macro-Economic Models, John Wiley & Sons, 1982, 193-213, intro, .
"Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Rational Expectations Models," (with J. B. Taylor), Econometrica, July 1983, 1169-1185, intro, pdf file (940 KB).
"Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Models," in Z. Griliches and M. D. Intriligator (eds.), Handbook of Econometrics, Volume III, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1986, 1979-1995, intro, pdf file (965 KB).
"A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further Results," (with L. Alexander), in D. A. Belsley and E. Kuh (eds.), Model Reliability, M.I.T. Press, 1986, 191-212, intro, pdf file (892 KB).
"Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," (with D. K. Andrews), Review of Economic Studies, October 1988, 615-640, intro, pdf file (1,458 KB).
"The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," (with R. J. Shiller), The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1989, 325-331, intro, pdf file (605 KB).
"Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," (with R. J. Shiller), The American Economic Review, June 1990, 375-389, intro, pdf file (1,090 KB).
"Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," (with J. B. Taylor), Journal of Applied Econometrics, October-December 1990, 381-392, intro, pdf file (783 KB).
"A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models," (with L. Alexander), in Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Comparative Performance of U.S. Econometric Models, Oxford University Press, 1991, 168-197, intro, pdf file (1,303 KB).
"Estimation of Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints," (with D. K. Andrews), Journal of Econometrics, 1992, 123-139, intro, pdf file (714 KB).
"Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, 1993, 169-190, intro, pdf file (1,104 KB).
"Estimating Event Probabilities in Macroeconometric Models using Stochastic Simulation," in J. Stock and M. Watson (eds.), Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, The University of Chicago Press, 1993, 157-176, intro, pdf file (879 KB).
"Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Macroeconometric Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 1996, 431-435, intro, pdf file (366 KB).
"Computational Methods for Macroeconometric Models," in H.M. Amman, D.A. Kendrick, and J. Rust (eds.), Handbook of Computational Economics, North-Holland Publishing Co., 1996, 143-169, intro, pdf file (1,310 KB).
"Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," 2003, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1, intro, pdf file (502 KB).

B. For Disequilibrium Models

"Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," (with D. M. Jaffee), Econometrica, May 1972, 497-514, intro, pdf file (1,089 KB).
"Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium: A Further Study," (with H. H. Kelejian), Econometrica, January 1974, 177-190, intro, pdf file (684 KB).

C. For the Tobit Model

"A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator," Econometrica, October 1977, 1723-1727, intro, pdf file (253 KB).

II. Macroeconomics

A. Research Using Disaggregate Data

B. Research Related to Forecasting Model

C. Research Related to US and MC Models

A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume I: The Theoretical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1974, intro.
pfd files: whole book (10,781 KB), toc,preface,bib,index (559 KB), chapter 1 (1,023 KB), chapter 2 (940 KB), chapter 3 (1,667 KB), chapter 4 (989 KB), chapter 5 (257 KB), chapter 6 (2,675 KB), chapter 7 (1,199 KB), chapter 8 (830 KB), appendix (877 KB).
A Model of Macroeconomic Activity. Volume II: The Empirical Model, Ballinger Publishing Co., 1976, intro.
pfd files: whole book (11,046 KB), toc,preface,bib,index (702 KB), chapter 1 (1,509 KB), chapter 2 (1,909 KB), chapter 3 (693 KB), chapter 4 (864 KB), chapter 5 (1,488 KB), chapter 6 (281 KB), chapter 7 (229 KB), chapter 8 (883 KB), chapter 9 (1,492 KB), chapter 10 (672 KB), chapter 11 (137 KB), appendix A (134 KB), appendix B (230 KB).
"Inflation and Unemployment in a Macroeconometric Model," in After The Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 19, June 1978, 164-193, intro, pdf file (1,463 KB).
"The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions About the Behavior of the Federal Reserve," Econometrica, September 1978, 1165-1179, intro, pdf file (914 KB).
"A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1978, 411-417, intro, pdf file (435 KB).
"A Model of the Balance of Payments," Journal of International Economics, February 1979, 25-46, intro, pdf file (1,113 KB).
"On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies," The American Economic Review, May 1979, 86-91, intro, pdf file (469 KB).
"An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets," The American Economic Review, September 1979, 539-552, intro, pdf file (1,053 KB).
"On Modeling the Economic Linkages Among Countries," in R. Dornbusch and J. A. Frenkel (eds.), International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979, 209-239, intro, pdf file (1,556 KB).
"A Multicountry Econometric Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 541R, April 1981, intro, pdf file: first half (2,070 KB), pdf file: second half (1,920 KB).
"Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy," The American Economic Review, May 1981, 160-165, intro, pdf file (443 KB).
"The Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares," Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 597, June 1981, intro, pdf file (1,445 KB).
"Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries," Journal of Political Economy, June 1982, 507-535, intro, pdf file (1,359 KB).
"Estimated Tradeoffs Between Unemployment and Inflation," in Price Stability and Public Policy, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1984, 57-96, intro, pdf file (1,315 KB).
Specification, Estimation, and Analysis of Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1984, intro, online order form.
pfd files: whole book (21,698 KB), toc,preface,notes,bib,index (1,035 KB), chapter 1 (463 KB), chapter 2 (1,327 KB), chapter 3 (3,277 KB), chapter 4 (4,025 KB), chapter 5 (346 KB), chapter 6 (1,749 KB), chapter 7 (655 KB), chapter 8 (1,957 KB), chapter 9 (2,527 KB), chapter 10 (887 KB), chapter 11 (1,787 KB), chapter 12 (304 KB), appendix A(1,005 KB), appendix B(410 KB), appendix C(268 KB).
"Excess Labor and the Business Cycle," The American Economic Review, March 1985, 239-245, intro, pdf file (547 KB).
"Properties of a Multicountry Econometric Model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Spring 1987, 83-123, intro, pdf file (1,677 KB).
"International Evidence on the Demand for Money," The Review of Economics and Statistics, August 1987, 473-480, intro, pdf file (627 KB).
"Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1988, 313-332, intro, pdf file (963 KB).
"Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Monetary Economics, September 1988, 301-315, intro, pdf file (766 KB).
"Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," (with K. M. Dominguez), The American Economic Review, December 1991, 1276-1294, intro, pdf file (1,210 KB).
"The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics," in Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, eds., The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992, 133-147, intro, pdf file (776 KB).
"Testing Macroeconometric Models," The American Economic Review, May 1993, 287-293, intro, pdf file (552 KB).
Testing Macroeconometric Models, Harvard University Press, 1994, part of the book on the site, online order form for the complete book.
pfd files: whole book (1,720 KB), toc,preface,bib,index (194 KB), chapter 1 (149 KB), chapter 2 (176 KB), chapter 3 (184 KB), chapter 4 (217 KB), chapter 5 (349 KB), chapter 6 (274 KB), chapter 7 (270 KB), chapter 8 (190 KB), chapter 9 (140 KB), chapter 10 (165 KB), chapter 11 (293 KB), chapter 12 (144 KB), chapter 13 (44 KB), appendix A (268 KB), appendix B (160 KB).
"Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules," (with E.P. Howrey), Journal of Monetary Economics, October 1996, 173-193, intro, pdf file (1,033 KB).
"Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU," National Institute Economic Review, April 1998, 90-99. intro, pfd file (1,030 KB).
"Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Winter 1999, 1-28, intro, pdf file (1,193 KB).
"A Fiscal Policy Rule for Stabilization," February 1999, unpublished, intro, pdf file (119 KB).
"Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations," May 1999, unpublished, intro, pfd file (95 KB).
"Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics,?" The American Economic Review, May 1999, 58-62, intro, pdf file (562 KB).
"What Can Macroeconometric Models Say About Asia-Type Crises?" May 1999, for presentation at the Twelfth World Congress of the International Economic Association, Buenos Aires, Argentina, August 23-27, 1999, unpublished, intro, pdf file (46 KB).
"Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 2000, 64-71. intro, pdf file (1,431 KB).
"Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy," Business Economics, April 2000, 7-14. intro, pdf file (2,155 KB).
"Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules," FRBNY Economic Policy Review, March 2001, 61-72. intro, pdf file (130 KB).
"On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks" 2002, Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3, intro, pdf file.
"Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s," Business Economics, January 2004, 43-53, intro, pdf file (2,677 KB).
Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works, Harvard University Press, 2004. intro, pdf file--pre-published (1.1 MB). pdf file--published (12.4 MB).
"Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," June 2005, intro, pdf file (117 KB).
"Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 2005, 645-660, intro, pdf file (568 KB).
"Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," 2005, Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19, intro, pdf file).
"Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," 2007, economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2007-8, intro, pdf file.
"A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?" 2007, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12, intro, pdf file.
"Testing Price Equations, " European Economic Review, November 2008, 1424-1437, intro, Testing Price Equations, prepublished pdf file (118 KB).
"Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Business Economics, October 2010, 233-243, intro, pdf file (1,147 KB).
"Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Contemporary Economic Policy, October 2010, 439-452, intro, pdf file (1,283 KB).
"A World Macro Saving Fact and an Explanation," revised July 2012, intro, pdf file.
"Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," 2011, NBER, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108. intro, pdf file.
"Has Macro Progressed? " Journal of Macroeconomics, 34 (2012), 2-10. intro, pdf file.
"Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability, " Journal of Forecasting, 31 (2012), 99-108. intro, pdf file.
"What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem," Contemporary Economic Policy, 30, (2012), 618-628. intro, pdf file.
"Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?" May 2012, intro, pdf file.
"How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty?" June 2012, intro, pdf file.
"Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling" July 2013, intro, pdf file.

D. Labor Force Participation

"Labor Force Participation, Wage Rates, and Money Illusion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1971, 164-168, intro, pdf file (453 KB).
"Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24," (with D. J. Macunovich), February 1997, unpublished, intro, pdf file (149 KB).

E. Miscellaneous

"The Determination of Yield Differentials Between Debt Instruments of the Same Maturity," (with B. G. Malkiel), Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, November 1971, 733-749, intro, pdf file (1,033 KB).
"The Implications of the Proposals of the Hunt Commission for the Mortgage and Housing Markets: An Empirical Study," (with D. M. Jaffee), in Policies for A More Competitive Financial System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No. 8, June 1972, 99-148, intro, pdf file (2,272 KB).
"Macro Simulations for PCs in the Classroom," (with K. E. Case), The American Economic Review, May 1985, 85-90, intro, pdf file (461 KB).
"Forecasting the Depression: Harvard versus Yale," (with K. M. Dominguez and M. S. Shapiro), The American Economic Review, September 1988, 595-612, intro, pdf file (1,101 KB).

III. Optimal Control

"On the Solution of Optimal Control Problems as Maximization Problems," Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, January 1974, 135-154, intro, pdf file (1,235 KB).
"The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance," International Economic Review, June 1978, 289-309, intro, pdf file (1,252 KB).
"Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, June 2003, 245-256, intro, pdf file (891 KB).

IV. Voting Behavior

"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1978, 159-173, intro, pdf file (1,276 KB).
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results," The Review of Economics and Statistics, May 1982, 322-325, intro, pdf file (314 KB).
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update," Political Behavior, 1988, 168-179, intro, pdf file (693 KB).
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1988 Update," November 1990, intro, pdf file (237 KB).
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Political Behavior, June 1996, 119-139, intro, pdf file (982 KB), pdf file (1,674 KB).
"Econometrics and Presidential Elections," The Journal of Economic Perspectives, Summer 1996, 89-102, intro, pdf file (714 KB).
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1996 Update," November 6, 1998, unpublished, intro, html file (24 KB).
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, 2002, Stanford University Press, intro.
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update," November 1, 2002, unpublished, intro, html file (24 KB).
"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update," November 1, 2006, unpublished, intro, html file (24 KB).
"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations, " American Journal of Political Science, January 2009, 55-72, intro, prepublished pdf file (170 KB).
"Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Journal of Politics, April 2009, 612-626, intro, pdf file (1,448 KB).
"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update," November 11, 2010, unpublished, intro, pdf file (62KB).
Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition, 2012, Stanford University Press, intro.

V. Finance

"Events that Shook the Market," Journal of Business, October 2002, 713-732, intro, pdf file (1,100 KB).
"Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 307-341, intro, pdf file (2,199 KB).
"Risk Aversion and Stock Prices," February 2003, intro, pdf file (68 KB).

VI. Applied Micro

"A Theory of Extramarital Affairs," Journal of Political Economy, February 1978, 45-61, intro, pdf file (805 KB), data used in the paper.

VII. Optimal Income Taxation

"The Optimal Distribution of Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, November 1971, 551-579, intro, pdf file (1,512 KB).

VIII. Aging

"How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?" The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1994, 103-118, intro, pdf file (1,305 KB).
"Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," Experimental Aging Research, 2007, 37-57, intro, pdf file (903 KB).
"Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," 2008, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4: Iss. 1, Article 1, intro, pdf file.

IX. Miscellaneous

"Can A Tax Plan Save Baseball?" (with Sharon M. Oster), For The Record, December 1994/ January 1995, 9, intro, pdf file (601 KB).
"The Great Gatsby: Yale, Princeton, Columbia, Harvard, Oxford," Eastern Economic Journal, Spring 2003, 159-163, intro, pdf file (221 KB).
"College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency," (with John F. Oster), Journal of Sports Economics, February 2007, 3-18, intro, pdf file (689 KB).
"Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later," (with Danielle Catambay), Nine, Fall 2008, 111-119, intro, pdf file (502 KB).