Aging in Sports and Chess

This part of the site allows one to compute his or her predicted minimum times by age in running and swimming events, given his or her best previous time. It does the same for the high jump regarding height and for chess regarding chess rating. It uses the results in Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess. One should at least skim this paper before computing any predictions to see what assumptions are being made and how the age factors were estimated.

Compute predicted minimum times (maximum heights for the high jump, maximum ratings for chess):
100, 200, or 400 meter track
All other running
Swimming, 50 meters or yards, men
Swimming, 100 meters or yards, men
Swimming, over 100 meters or yards, men
Swimming, 50 meters or yards, women
Swimming, 100 meters or yards, women
Swimming, over 100 meters or yards, women
High jump
Chess

Related Papers:

How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1994, 103-118

Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things (Chapter 8)

Mike Tymn review article

David Leonhardt NYT article

Speed is not that fleeting, Geezerjock, October 2004.

Estimated Age Effects in Baseball, October 2005.

Ray Fair's 20K and Marathon times:
Marathon times
New Haven 20K times

John Courtmanche's 20K times:
New Haven 20K times

Barbara Pearce's 20K times:
New Haven 20K times

Barbara Pearce's 5K times:
Christopher Martin's 5K times

Leah Vogel's 20K times:
New Haven 20K times

Amby Burfoot's Manchester Road Race times:
Manchester Road Race times