Ray C. Fair: Research 2000-2022

Macroeconomics

Macroeconometric Modeling: 2018, macro reference for the site, pdf file
"Explaining the Inflation Expectations Data from the NY Fed," February 26, 2023, in progress, intro
"Why Have Interest Rates Been Low?" July 2022, in progress, intro
"A Note on the Fed's Power to Lower Inflation", Business Economics, 2022, intro
"What Do Price Equations Say About Future Inflation?" Business Economics, 2021, intro
"Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions," January 2022, in progress, intro
"Trade Models and Macroeconomics," Economic Modeling, 2021, intro
"Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE Models: Comment," Journal of Macroeconomics, 2020, intro
"Some Important Macro Points," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020, intro
"U.S. Infrastructure: 1929--2019," September 2021, in progress, intro
"Information Content of DSGE Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, 2019, intro
"Explaining the Slow U.S. Recovery: 2010--2017," Business Economics, 2018, intro
"Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving," International Economics, 2017, intro
"Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008--2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2017, intro
"A Mini Version of the US Model," July 2016, unpublished, intro
"Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 15, Issue 1, 445-466, 2015, intro
"How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty?" Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 8, 2014-27, 2014, intro
"Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?" Business Economics, 2014, intro
"Has Macro Progressed?" Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, intro
"Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability," Journal of Forecasting, 2012, intro
"What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem," Contemporary Economic Policy, 2012, intro
"Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits," 2011, NBER, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108, intro
"Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill," Contemporary Economic Policy, 2010, intro
"Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Business Economics, 2010, intro
"Testing Price Equations," European Economic Review, 2008, intro
"Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 1, 2007-8, 2007, intro
"A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?" The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12, 2007, intro
"Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy," Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19, 2005, intro
"Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, intro
"Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics," June 2005, unpublished, intro
"Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works," Harvard University Press, 2004, intro
"Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s," Business Economics, 2004, intro
"Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations," Computational Economics, 2003, intro
"Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1, 2003, intro
"On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3, 2002,intro
"Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules," FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 2001, intro
"Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy," Business Economics, 2000, intro
"Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2000, intro
Voting Behavior
"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2022 Update," November 23, 2022, unpublished, intro
"Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting: A Comment on Pastor and Veronesi (2020)," July 2021, in progress, intro
"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2018 Update," November 14, 2018, unpublished, intro
"Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition,", Stanford University Press, 2012, intro
"Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections," Journal of Politics, 2009, intro
"Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science", 2009, intro
Finance
"Are Stock Returns and Output Growth Higher Under Democrats?" September 2021, in progress, intro
"Risk Aversion and Stock Prices," February 2003, unpublished, intro
"Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, intro
"Events that Shook the Market," Journal of Business, 2002, intro
Aging
"Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women," in progress, March 2024, intro
"Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events," (with Edward H. Kaplan), The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2018, intro
"Estimated Age Effects in Baseball," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4: Iss. 1, Article 1, 2008, intro
"Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess," Experimental Aging Research, 2007, intro
Optimal Income Taxation
"The Optimal Distribution of Income Revisited," August 2017, unpublished, intro
Miscellaneous
"The Cost of Contact in Ivy League Sports," March 2024, in progress, intro
"A Note on Estimating Sports Injuries at Ivy League Universities," July 2022, in progresss, intro
"Estimated Costs of Injuries in College and High School Female Sports," (with Christopher Champa), Sports Economic Review, 2022, intro
"Estimated Costs of Contact in College and High School Male Sports," (with Christopher Champa), Journal of Sports Economics, 2019, intro
"Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later, (with Danielle Catambay)," Nine, 2008, intro
"College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency, (with John F. Oster)," Journal of Sports Economics, 2007, intro

Macroeconomics

Voting Behavior

Finance

Aging

Optimal Income Taxation

Miscellaneous