Ray C. Fair: Research 2000-2024
Macroeconomics
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- Macroeconometric Modeling: 2018,
macro reference for the site, pdf file
- "Inflation Expectations, Price Equations, and Fed Effects,"
August 2024, in progress, intro
- "Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles: Comment,"
June 2024, in progress, intro
- "Why Have Interest Rates Been Low?"
July 2022, in progress, intro
- "A Note on the Fed's Power to Lower Inflation",
Business Economics, 2022,
intro
- "What Do Price Equations Say About Future
Inflation?"
Business Economics, 2021, intro
- "Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three
Expansions," January 2022, in progress, intro
- "Trade Models and Macroeconomics,"
Economic Modeling, 2021, intro
- "Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE
Models: Comment,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2020,
intro
- "Some Important Macro Points,"
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020,
intro
- "U.S. Infrastructure: 1929--2019," September 2021, in progress, intro
- "Information Content of DSGE
Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, 2019,
intro
- "Explaining the Slow U.S. Recovery: 2010--2017,"
Business Economics, 2018, intro
- "Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving,"
International Economics, 2017, intro
- "Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity:
2008--2013," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
2017, intro
- "A Mini Version of the US Model,"
July 2016, unpublished, intro
- "Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 15, Issue 1, 445-466, 2015,
intro
- "How Might a Central Bank Report
Uncertainty?"
Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 8, 2014-27,
2014, intro
- "Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?"
Business Economics, 2014, intro
- "Has Macro Progressed?"
Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, intro
- "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability,"
Journal of Forecasting, 2012, intro
- "What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit
Problem,"
Contemporary Economic Policy, 2012, intro
- "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of
Large Future Federal Government Deficits," 2011,
NBER, Tax Policy and the
Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108, intro
- "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the
U.S. Stimulus Bill,"
Contemporary Economic Policy, 2010, intro
- "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan
Appreciation," Business Economics, 2010,
intro
- "Testing Price Equations,"
European Economic Review, 2008,
intro
- "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a
Macroeconometric Model,"
Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 1, 2007-8,
2007, intro
- "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was
Greenspan the Best?"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7:
Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12, 2007,
intro
- "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy,"
Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19, 2005,
intro
- "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary
Policy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005,
intro
- "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics,"
June 2005, unpublished, intro
- "Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works,"
Harvard University Press, 2004, intro
- "Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s,"
Business Economics, 2004, intro
- "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large
Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations,"
Computational Economics, 2003, intro
- "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics,
Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1, 2003, intro
- "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks,"
Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3,
2002,intro
- "Actual Federal Reserve Policy
Behavior and Interest Rate Rules,"
FRBNY Economic Policy Review, 2001, intro
- "Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock
Market Crash on the Economy," Business Economics, 2000,
intro
- "Testing the NAIRU Model for the United
States,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2000,
intro
Voting Behavior
- "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share
Equations: November 2022 Update," November 23, 2022,
unpublished, intro
- "Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion
Voting: A Comment on
Pastor and Veronesi (2020)," July 2021, in progress,
intro
- "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share
Equations: November 2018 Update," November 14, 2018,
unpublished, intro
- "Predicting Presidential Elections and
Other Things, Second Edition,", Stanford University Press, 2012,
intro
- "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of
Elections," Journal of Politics, 2009,
intro
- "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share
Equations," American Journal of Political Science", 2009,
intro
Finance
- "Are Stock Returns and Output Growth Higher
Under Democrats?" September 2021, in progress,
intro
- "Risk Aversion and Stock Prices,"
February 2003, unpublished, intro
- "Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and
Exchange Rates,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
2003, intro
- "Events that Shook the Market,"
Journal of Business, 2002, intro
Aging
- "Physical Decline Rates: Men versus Women," in progress,
September 2024, intro
- "Estimating Aging Effects in Running
Events," (with Edward H. Kaplan), The Review
of Economics and Statistics, 2018, intro
- "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball,"
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4: Iss. 1,
Article 1, 2008, intro
- "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and
Chess,"
Experimental Aging Research, 2007, intro
Optimal Income Taxation
- "The Optimal Distribution of Income Revisited,"
August 2017, unpublished, intro
Miscellaneous
- "Estimates of the Cost of Contact in Ivy League Sports,"
September 2024, in progress, intro
- "Estimated Costs of Injuries in College and
High School Female Sports," (with Christopher Champa),
Sports Economic Review, 2022, intro
- "Estimated Costs of Contact in College and
High School Male Sports," (with Christopher Champa),
Journal of Sports Economics, 2019, intro
- "Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years
Later, (with Danielle Catambay),"
Nine, 2008, intro
- "College Football Rankings and
Market Efficiency, (with John F. Oster),"
Journal of Sports Economics, 2007, intro