Ray C. Fair: Recent Research

Macroeconometric Modeling: 2018, macro reference for the site.

Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting, March 2021, in progress.

Are Stock Returns and Output Growth Higher Under Democrats?, February 2021, in progress.

Analysis of Nine U.S. Recessions and Three Expansions, January 2021, in progress.

Trade Models and Macroeconomics , Economic Modeling, forthcoming, 2021.

Variable Mismeasurement in a Class of DSGE Models: Comment , Journal of Macroeconomics, December 2020.

Some Important Macro Points , Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2020.

Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2018 Update, November 14, 2018, vote update, unpublished.

U.S. Infrastructure: 1929--2017 , December 2019, in progress.

Estimated Costs of Injuries in College and High School Female Sports, (with Christopher Champa), July 2019, in progress.

Information Content of DSGE Forecasts, Journal of Forecasting, 2019, 1-6.

Estimated Costs of Contact in College and High School Male Sports, (with Christopher Champa), Journal of Sports Economics, 2019, 690-717.

Explaining the Slow U.S. Recovery: 2010--2017 , Business Economics, October 2018, 184-194.

Estimating Aging Effects in Running Events, (with Edward H. Kaplan), The Review of Economics and Statistics, October 2018, 704-711.

Wealth Effects on World Private Financial Saving, International Economics, May 2017, 15-26.

Household Wealth and Macroeconomic Activity: 2008--2013, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, March-April 2017, 495-523.

The Optimal Distribution of Income Revisited, August 2017, unpublished.

A Mini Version of the US Model, July 2016, unpublished.

Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 15, Issue 1, 445-466, 2015.

How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty? Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 8, 2014-27, 2014.

Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea? Business Economics, October 2014, 244-252.

Has Macro Progressed? Journal of Macroeconomics, 2012, 2-10.

Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability, Journal of Forecasting, 2012, 99-108.

What It Takes To Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem, Contemporary Economic Policy, October 2012, 618-628.

Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, Second Edition,, Stanford University Press, 2012.

Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits, 2011, NBER, Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, 89-108.

Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill, Contemporary Economic Policy, October 2010, 439-452.

Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation, Business Economics, October 2010, 233-243.

Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections, Journal of Politics, April 2009, 612-626.

Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations, American Journal of Political Science, January 2009, 55-72.

Testing Price Equations, European Economic Review, November 2008, 1424-1437.

Estimated Age Effects in Baseball, 2008, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, Vol. 4: Iss. 1, Article 1.

Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later, (with Danielle Catambay), Nine, Fall 2008, 111-119.

Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model, Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Vol. 1, 2007-8, 2007.

A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best? 2007, The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Vol. 7: Iss. 1 (Contributions), Article 12.

Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess, Experimental Aging Research, 2007, 37-57.

College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency, (with John F. Oster), Journal of Sports Economics, February 2007, 3-18.

Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy, 2005, Topics in Macroeconomics, Vol. 5: Iss. 1, Article 19.

Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, August 2005, 645-660.

Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics, June 2005, unpublished.

Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works, Harvard University Press, 2004.

Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s, Business Economics, January 2004, 43-53.

Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations, Computational Economics, June 2003, 245-256.

Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models, 2003, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Vol. 7: No. 4, Article 1.

Risk Aversion and Stock Prices, February 2003, unpublished.

Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 307-341.

Events that Shook the Market, Journal of Business, October 2002, 713-732.

On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks, 2002, Contributions to Macroeconomics, Vol. 2: Iss. 1, Article 3.

Actual Federal Reserve Policy Behavior and Interest Rate Rules, FRBNY Economic Policy Review, March 2001, 61-72.

Fed Policy and the Effects of a Stock Market Crash on the Economy, Business Economics, April 2000, 7-14.

Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States, The Review of Economics and Statistics, February 2000, 64-71.